The biggest signal this morning came out of Washington late Wednesday. Minutes from the Fed's September 15 to 16 meeting, where the committee raised the fed funds target range a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on a 12 to 0 vote, show that most participants judged another increase "would likely be appropriate by year end." Participants said they had not seen sufficient progress on lowering inflation in recent months and generally saw inflation risk as skewed to the upside, while almost all of them called the risks to the labor market broadly balanced. This morning's jobless claims backed up that read on the job market: the Labor Department's advance figure for the week ending October 3 was 197,000, down 2,000 from the prior week, with the four-week average at 198,000.
Yesterday's edition caught the 30-year pausing at 7.52% after Tuesday's oil-led bond bounce. That pause is over. Bankrate's conventional 30-year reads 7.55% this morning, up 3 hundredths on the day, 12 hundredths above a week ago and right back at the top of its 90-day range of 6.57% to 7.55%. Treasury's daily curve closed the 10-year at 5.28% Wednesday, a hundredth above Tuesday, and it is trading near 5.32% early today.
The connection between the two is the cost of waiting. A Fed that expects to tighten again and weekly claims still under 200,000 give bonds little reason to rally before the next data, and MBA's weekly survey shows what that is doing to the business. Applications fell 4.2% for the week ending October 2, refinance applications fell 8% and sit 56% below the same week last year, and the unadjusted purchase index is 15% lower than a year ago. MBA's 30-year conforming contract rate rose to 7.49% from 7.30%, FHA purchase applications fell 6%, and the ARM share held at 10.3% of applications.
For pricing, 7.55% on a $400,000 loan is about $2,811 a month in principal and interest, against about $2,778 at last Thursday's 7.43% and about $2,547 at the 90-day low. The next scheduled catalysts are CPI in the October 10 to 15 window, Consumer Sentiment in a window that opens October 13, housing starts and permits in the October 16 to 18 window, and the Fed's October 27 to 28 meeting, which does not carry a dot plot. Freddie Mac's weekly survey also lands today.
On the guideline side, Fannie Mae's Selling Guide Announcement SEL-2026-09 removes the specific methods lenders must use for a verbal verification of employment, effective immediately: any method that is reasonable, verifiable and appropriate for the borrower's employment or income type now qualifies, and the timing rules are unchanged. From applications dated December 2, 2026, a borrower qualifying with Schedule K-1 income from a business they own less than 25% of needs a verbal VOE. The same announcement measures income continuance from the application date rather than the note date, accepts an email or other verifiable confirmation of a non-contingent job offer, and drops three Attorney Opinion Letter restrictions, including the exclusion of Texas Section 50(a)(6) loans. UWM announced it is removing its minimum credit score overlays on agency loans, so eligibility there rests on AUS findings while scores still drive pricing. HUD opened a Fair Housing Act investigation into Wells Fargo's initiatives aimed at Black homeownership, and a senior HUD official told the Wall Street Journal the agency is reviewing similar initiatives at other banks; if your shop runs a special purpose credit program, this is the week to confirm its documentation with compliance. HUD also released a seven-point Next Generation Manufactured Housing Action Plan covering chassis-free homes, including resources on their appraisal and lending. And Oklahoma's Department of Consumer Credit says its state-specific 2027 renewal fees will be discounted 28.28%, ahead of the NMLS renewal period that opens November 1.
Pull every open file with a pending verbal VOE and confirm with your processor which method you will use under the new Fannie Mae language, then flag any K-1 borrower under 25% ownership whose application will be dated December 2 or later!