Friday closed a light week with no marquee print, but the through-line is worth an LO's attention: the housing market is slowly tilting toward buyers. HousingWire's read on the for-sale inventory rebound argues sellers are starting to recalibrate their price expectations as competition for a smaller buyer pool intensifies — though the shift is uneven, strong in a handful of metros and barely visible in others. That's the single most useful frame for your buyer conversations this weekend: negotiating leverage is returning, but it's local.
Yesterday's edition flagged that Freddie's headline survey hit an 11-month high (6.55%) on last week's yields while the 10-year had already eased. The update: that easing didn't hold. The 10-year drifted back to about 4.57% and MBS ended Friday roughly unchanged after a week of gradual weakness — bonds picked up a little safe-haven demand midweek on the Iran headlines, but not enough to move mortgage pricing. Net, no rally materialized.
The macro backdrop reinforces the sticky-rate story. June housing starts snapped back to a 1.43 million annualized pace from May's weak 1.20 million, but the rebound was almost entirely multifamily — and building permits, the better forward indicator, kept trending lower to 1.367 million. Builders are finishing what's in the pipeline while turning cautious about new projects. On the labor side, jobless claims fell to 208,000 from 216,000, a firm reading that keeps the Fed patient and keeps rates from drifting lower on their own.
On pricing, be straight with borrowers: the 30-year sits in the mid-6s — around 6.6% on a conforming loan, with FHA near 6.25%, VA near 6.26%, and the 15-year at 5.99%. Rates are up roughly 6 basis points on the week and 8 on the month, even though Friday itself ticked down about a nickel. There's no downtrend to wait out right now. For a buyer gaining negotiating room, the play is the purchase itself — price, seller credits, a seller-funded rate buydown — not betting the rate sheet improves. That framing also keeps you honest when they check Bankrate on their phone.
A few items worth having in your back pocket: Newrez's servicing arm (Shellpoint) was sued in New Jersey over alleged RESPA violations — delayed loss-mitigation reviews and inconsistent figures while foreclosure activity continued — a clean reminder of why servicing timelines and consistent numbers matter. On the policy front, the ROAD to Housing Act is drawing "good start, but not enough" reviews on affordability, while a separate Mortgage Professional America piece notes affordability actually improved at the margin despite record prices as income gains outpaced payment growth in some markets. And Rocket lined up a new multibillion-dollar JPMorgan financing facility, replacing the one it carried before the Mr. Cooper and Redfin deals closed — a sign the large nonbanks are terming out their balance sheets for the next leg of consolidation.
Pull three active buyer clients and send each a two-line note that pairs the "inventory is building, you have more room to negotiate" message with a same-day payment quote at today's rate — the combination of leverage plus a concrete number is what turns a fence-sitter into an offer.