The rate sheet and the bond market went opposite directions again today, and the gap between them is now the story. Bankrate's conventional 30-year printed 7.15%, three basis points above yesterday and the top of its 90-day range, while the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.95% from 4.96%. Four sessions ago the 10-year sat at 5.01% and the 30-year was 7.09%. Since then the benchmark has come down about six basis points and the rate sheet has gone up six — roughly 12 basis points of spread widening in under a week. The relief your borrowers may be reading about in the bond market is not reaching their quote.
Yesterday's brief had the 10-year backing off with the sheet holding at 7.12%. The direction has not changed, only the size of the gap. Behind it is last week's FOMC decision: on September 16 the Committee raised the target range a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on a unanimous 12–0 vote. Fed officials speak throughout this week, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains too high across all aspects of the economy. Bank of America is holding to a call for two more increases before year-end.
The macro backdrop under that decision is mixed in a way that keeps lenders cautious. Jobless claims fell to 196,000 from 206,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%, so the labor side is not asking for relief. But consumer sentiment dropped to 47.8 in September from 51.7, existing sales slipped to a 3.98 million annual pace from 4.06 million, and permits eased to 1.394 million from 1.433 million. Oil has helped — a barrel is under $93 after cresting $106 the week before, which is the main reason the 10-year has been able to drift lower at all. Lenders are pricing the hiking path rather than the day's bond move, and that is what holds the spread open.
For lock decisions, the usual wait-for-the-ten-year logic is not paying right now. Freddie Mac's PMMS last read 6.95% on September 17, up 19 basis points week over week — the largest one-week move in its last twelve weekly readings — and the next PMMS print lands September 24, the same day as jobless claims. Core PCE is due between September 23 and 30, and the next FOMC meeting is October 27–28 with no Summary of Economic Projections attached. The MBA raised its 30-year forecast to 6.8% for the fourth quarter through the middle of 2027, up from 6.7% and well above July's 6.5% call, and trimmed its 2026 refinance projection to $700 billion from $713 billion. A borrower floating for a better number over the next two weeks is betting against both that forecast and the current spread behavior.
On the conforming side, the early-limit race is still running ahead of FHFA's official 2027 numbers: Pennymac is at $850,000 for one-unit properties, UWM at $847,440, and at least eight other lenders at $845,000. Confirm which limit each of your investors is honoring before you quote a file that lands between those figures. HUD published a 60-day information-collection notice covering FHA loss-mitigation servicing (FR-7110-N-15, OMB control 2502-0589) with comments open through November 23. Redfin put August home-price growth at 0.25% nationally, down marginally from 0.26% in July, with the sharpest declines in Austin and Charlotte.
pull every file you have floating above $845,000, confirm which investor limit it is priced to, and call the borrower with that specific number and today's 7.15% instead of waiting on the FHFA announcement.