Treasury holds auction sizes steady two days before payrolls

Treasury's quarterly refunding statement hit at 8:30 this morning and did what the dealer community had told everyone it would do: nothing. The refunding stays at $125 billion, and the nominal coupon auction sizes are unchanged — $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, $25 billion in 30-year bonds. Primary dealers had been saying for a week that Treasury would avoid signaling any increase this quarter and would push that conversation into early 2027. They were right. For an LO, the takeaway is what did *not* happen: no new supply headline for the long end to price, which clears the deck for Friday. The 30-year fixed eased four basis points to 6.76% today.

Yesterday's edition led with New York Fed president John Williams putting a rate increase explicitly back on the table if inflation stalls out. Nothing today walked that back. That comment is still the live framing on the front end, and it's why this Friday's employment report carries more weight than a normal first-Friday print — the Fed has told the market its next move is conditional, and the labor data is the condition.

Put those together and the week has a shape. A non-event refunding, a hawkish-leaning Fed speaker, the VIX sitting quiet at 15.86, and a 10-year at 4.70% — down from 4.75% — describe a market that is not pricing much event risk between now and Friday morning. Jobless claims land Thursday and are unlikely to move anything on their own. Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate land Friday, August 7. Unemployment ticked *down* to 4.2% from 4.3% in the last read, and claims have crept up to 197,000 from 188,000 — two signals pointing opposite directions, which is exactly the setup where a single print resets the whole curve. The next FOMC meeting is September 15–16 and carries a Summary of Economic Projections, so Friday's number also feeds directly into the dot plot the market will trade in six weeks.

On rates, be straight with borrowers about the trajectory. Today's four-basis-point improvement is real but small, and it sits inside a month that went the other way: the 30-year is up eight basis points over the past week and 23 basis points over the past month, and at 6.76% it is six basis points off its 90-day high of 6.82%. Rates have not been coming down — they have been grinding modestly higher and are now near the top of a 6.45%–6.82% band. Practically: anyone closing inside 30 days should be locked, full stop, because a strong Friday print gives up more than a weak one gains at this position in the range. If you have a borrower who is genuinely willing to float, Thursday afternoon is the decision point, not Friday at 8:31. Government product is where the pricing gap is widest right now — FHA at 6.29% and VA at 6.31% sit nearly half a point under the conventional 30-year, which is worth a second look on any file where the borrower assumed conventional was the default.

On the industry side, second-quarter results are landing and they are not telling one story. loanDepot narrowed its net loss to $6.6 million on revenue up 18% to $337.3 million, with originations up 4% to nearly $8 billion. Two reads on this: HousingWire frames it as home equity products lifting margins, while National Mortgage News points out that a rate-driven servicing valuation gain drove much of the improvement and that adjusted losses actually widened year over year. Both are true; the durable part is the home equity mix, not the servicing mark. Elsewhere: Carrington closed its acquisition of Valon Mortgage, adding roughly 810,000 loans and moving onto the ValonOS servicing platform — worth knowing if your past clients get a servicing transfer notice in the next few months. Zillow is cutting just over 500 staff in a restructuring ahead of its own Q2 report. On the brokerage side Compass posted record revenue of $4.3 billion with $92 million in net income on the strength of the Anywhere acquisition, and eXp Realty's parent AGNT reported $1.4 billion, up 11% year over year. And former FHA Commissioner Frank Cassidy weighed in on JPMorgan Chase's $750 billion housing commitment, describing it as recognition of housing as economic infrastructure — no operational change for originators yet, but it's the capital-flows story to keep an eye on.