August payrolls came in at 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, but the revisions did more work than the headline. July, first reported as a 23,000-job loss, was revised to a gain of 21,000, and June moved up 11,000 — so the single weak print that powered August's bond rally has essentially been revised out of existence. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% over the year, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 61.6%. This is a solid report rather than a hot one, and its practical effect on your pipeline is subtraction: the downside catalyst borrowers were floating for did not show up.
If you missed yesterday, two things moved. Redfin's four weeks through August 30 put new listings at their highest level in four years while pending sales sat at their lowest since February — buyer leverage arriving from supply rather than from the rate. And Thursday afternoon, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed probably does not need to hike at the September meeting unless inflation surprises; fed funds futures repriced within minutes and held the move into the close. Note which direction the risk runs right now: with fed funds at 3.63%, the live debate is hike-or-hold, not cut-or-hold. Freddie Mac's weekly survey printed 6.71% the same afternoon, a year-to-date high.
The operational news broke Thursday evening. FHFA Director Bill Pulte announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are to approve all lenders to deliver loans scored with VantageScore 4.0, effective immediately — an expansion of the limited rollout that opened to an approved set of lenders on May 1 under the April 22 credit-score competition initiative. The tri-merge credit report requirement stays in place, and a bi-merge framework was described as under consideration rather than adopted. Two cautions before you act on it: the announcement came publicly from the director and through the wire and trade press, with no FHFA news release and no selling-guide update posted yet, and your investor overlays govern your file regardless of what the GSEs will buy. The change is real; the paperwork confirming it is not there yet.
The rate picture tightened rather than broke. Bankrate's 30-year average sits at 6.83% this morning, up three basis points from yesterday and five on the week, which puts it at the very top of its 90-day band of 6.47% to 6.83% and just above the 6.736% 30-day average. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.79% on September 2, up from 4.66% in late August. On a $400,000 loan the principal-and-interest payment runs roughly $2,616 a month, about $8 more than yesterday. With payrolls behind us, the calendar narrows to two dates: the August CPI report, expected between September 10 and 15, and the FOMC meeting on September 15 and 16, which carries a Summary of Economic Projections. A borrower whose file can close inside three weeks is deciding between locking into the top of the range and floating into two events that can move it either way — say that out loud rather than letting them infer it.
Elsewhere, the November 2 UAD 3.6 mandate is starting to shape lender behavior: National Mortgage News reports AnnieMac and Lower leaning on appraisal waivers and in-house teams to avoid the fee spikes and turn-time stretch that hit the last format transition, which is worth building into your closing dates now rather than in late October. A federal court ruled that alleged RESPA servicing errors could not block a US Bank foreclosure, a narrow holding but a useful one to understand before you advise a borrower in default. On the distribution side, Real ended new Motto Mortgage franchise sales days after closing its RE/MAX merger, leaving existing owners with a shrinking network to weigh; Better rejected Vishal Garg's proposed 90-day turnaround plan within hours of receiving it; and Northwest MLS launched its First Look pre-market program today, which analysts expect other MLSs to copy. Redfin also flagged that three of the country's six remaining seller's markets are New York City suburbs, with Long Island the tightest in the nation.
pull the purchase files you set aside this summer because the credit score was the binding constraint, then send your investor rep one written question — are you accepting VantageScore 4.0 deliveries today, and with what documentation. The GSE-level change is immediate; your investor's answer is the part that actually governs the file, and you want it in writing before a borrower asks.