The 30-year eased to 6.72% today, down 6 basis points from yesterday's 6.78% — a pullback from the top of the 90-day range rather than a real reversal. Bonds were described as "somewhat optimistic" heading into this morning's session, but the bigger story is what's landing today: the CPI print markets have been waiting on all week. Overnight, Cleveland Fed President Hammack — one of three FOMC members who voted for a rate hike last month — reiterated that a single hike "may not get the job done" on inflation, a reminder the committee isn't unified around a dovish path even after July's weak jobs report. Lock activity is already feeling the July rate spike: purchases made up more than 80% of lock volume last month as refi share kept shrinking, per Scotsman Guide's lock data.
Today's CPI print is the only release this week with real weight, and it's the swing factor for how the Fed leans into its September 15–16 meeting — a meeting that does carry a fresh Summary of Economic Projections. A hot number reinforces Hammack's hike case; a soft one adds fuel to the cut argument. Behind CPI, jobless claims land Thursday and Housing Starts/Permits follow August 16–18 — both secondary to today's data.
At 6.72%, the 30-year sits in the upper-middle of its 90-day range (6.47%–6.82%), pulled back from Monday's near-high but still well above the May/June trough. The range has been drifting higher in small steps since late July, and today's dip doesn't change that shape yet.
Files sitting within striking distance of 7% — and any borrower currently floating — are the focus today, given a hawkish Fed voice is still active on the tape and CPI could reprice the sheet by end of day. Do this today: call every borrower whose rate lock is within 10 days of expiring and get a clear answer on locking now versus riding through this afternoon's data.