NOW. August payrolls printed 162,000 with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, and the revisions carried more weight than the headline: July flipped from a reported 23,000-job loss to a 21,000-job gain, and June moved up 11,000. The weak print that drove August's rally has been revised away. Wages rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% over the year, which is not the kind of number that forces anybody's hand. Bankrate's 30-year average sits at 6.83% this morning, up three basis points from yesterday and five on the week; the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.79% on September 2, up from 4.66% in late August. Thursday's counterweight is still live — Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed probably does not need to hike in September absent an inflation surprise, and fed funds futures held that repricing into the close. With fed funds at 3.63%, the argument on the table is hike-or-hold.
NEXT. Two dates, and everything between them is noise. The August CPI report is expected between September 10 and 15, and the FOMC meets September 15 and 16 with a Summary of Economic Projections attached — the statement lands 2:00pm ET on the 16th, press conference at 2:30. Waller framed the September decision as hinging on that inflation reading, so CPI is functionally the meeting. Weekly jobless claims land the 10th and Freddie Mac's survey the same day. A cool CPI is the only realistic path to a lower thirty-year inside the next two weeks; a hot one puts the dot plot in play with rates already at the top of their range.
RANGE. At 6.83%, today's thirty-year is the high of the 30-day window (6.67% to 6.83%) and the high of the 90-day window (6.47% to 6.83%) — 9 basis points above the 30-day average of 6.736% and 17 above the 90-day average of 6.66%. Freddie Mac's weekly survey printed 6.71% Thursday, its own year-to-date high on a different and lower-running scale. There is no refi window opening here. The 30-day move is only two basis points, so the story is not a spike; it is a rate that has quietly stopped coming down and is now sitting at the expensive end of everything it has done since June.
DO. Today's segment is the government-loan borrower, and the spread is doing work nobody is talking about. Bankrate has FHA at 6.42% and VA at 6.48% against 6.83% conventional — 41 and 35 basis points of separation, worth about $109 and $92 a month on a $400,000 loan. Any purchase borrower under a 700 score, or any veteran you have been running conventional out of habit, deserves both scenarios side by side before a rate this high locks the decision for them. For in-flight files closing inside three weeks: you are locking at the top of the range into a CPI print and an FOMC meeting, which is a real coin flip, and the honest framing is that the downside catalyst already came and went this morning. Do this today: pull every pre-approval issued in the last 60 days with a FICO under 700 and run the FHA number beside the conventional one, then send both — the payment gap is large enough to change what house they are shopping for.