NOW: The 30-year printed 6.82% this morning, up seven basis points from the 6.75% that held Friday through Monday and a new high for this stretch. The move is the interesting part, because Monday traded the other way. Oil fell hard on the pause in U.S.-Iran airstrikes, Treasuries followed, and Mortgage News Daily's recap flagged that yields were not quite as willing to follow oil's full drop — bonds underperformed the risk move. Consumer trackers showed daily pricing lower on the same headlines. Retail averages did not. The honest trend is up three basis points on the week and nine on the month, with Freddie's weekly survey last printing 6.58% on the 23rd. The last published 10-year is 4.69% as of Friday's close, two basis points below where it sat when we wrote yesterday, and the last VIX reading is 18.58. Nothing in the government data moved today; this was a spread and positioning story.
NEXT: The FOMC meeting opened this morning and runs through tomorrow, with the statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern and the press conference at 2:30. July carries no Summary of Economic Projections, so there is no dot plot to spread the market's attention across — the statement language is the entire event, and that concentrates the risk into a single paragraph. Scotsman Guide's preview of Kevin Warsh's second meeting as chair notes that although the odds are against it, some analysts see a hike as possible, and Redfin's weekly read expects continued volatility with risk on oil, AI-driven inflation, and a less predictable committee. After the Fed, Core PCE lands Friday the 31st and jobless claims Thursday the 30th, with the next payrolls report not until August 7. If you want one thing to watch tomorrow, it is whether the statement retains or softens its inflation language; that clause will do more to your pricing this week than any print on the calendar.
RANGE: Today sits at the ceiling of both windows. The 30-day range is 6.43% to 6.82% against an average of 6.60%, so we are 22 basis points rich to the month; the 90-day range is 6.30% to 6.82%, and today is the high of it. That kills the refinance conversation for anyone sitting between 6.75% and 7.25% — the math does not clear costs at this level and pretending otherwise wastes a call. What has opened instead is the government-loan gap. VA is at 6.37% and FHA at 6.36% against conventional's 6.82%, roughly 45 basis points of daylight, which is wide by historical standards and worth about $119 a month on a $400,000 loan. Jumbo has gone the other way and is now at 6.90%, just eight basis points over conventional and tighter than yesterday, so size is nearly free right now. The 15-year at 6.17% is only 65 basis points under the 30-year, which is a narrow spread and makes the term-shortening pitch less compelling than usual.
DO: Two segments today, and neither of them is the conventional refinance borrower. First, every eligible veteran or first-time buyer still shopping conventional — that 45-basis-point gap is the widest structural advantage on the board and most of them have not been shown the comparison. Second, anyone with a lock decision due inside thirty days: this is not a float. Pricing is already at the top of its range, there is no dot plot to dilute the statement, and the asymmetry runs against you. Do this today: run a side-by-side conventional-versus-government payment comparison for every eligible file in your pipeline and send it before tomorrow's 2:00 p.m. statement, then lock anything closing in the next thirty days.