Bonds gave back the post-CPI relief rally. The 10Y closed at 4.42% — 4 bps above Friday's settle and fully unwinding Monday's 3-bp drop. April CPI came in slightly hot (headline 3.8% vs 3.7% expected, core 2.8% vs 2.7%), but MND's MBS desk titled the morning recap "Slightly Hotter CPI No Problem For Bonds" — yields rallied for 20 minutes post-print before reversing the entire day. Conventional 30Y essentially flat: Bankrate daily 6.45% (down 1 bp from 6.46), Freddie Thursday still 6.37%. The story today is in the gov-loan spreads: FHA jumped 7 bps to 6.02%, VA jumped 7 bps to 6.04%, jumbo widened 7 bps to 6.68%. Gov-loan investors are demanding wider spread compensation than they were 48 hours ago — which means borrowers in those programs are seeing pricing move while the headline conventional rate stays still.
Warsh confirmation procedural votes hit the Senate floor Wednesday with a full vote later this week; Powell's term ends Friday. PPI lands Thursday — that's the next material data print. Watch the 10Y at 4.45 as the immediate technical resistance — a break above on a PPI surprise pulls the 30Y toward 6.50. Goldman and BofA pushed their first-cut forecast to mid-2027 yesterday, formalizing the "no cuts in 2026" base case that's now consensus across the Street. Every dovish-tilt headline this week faces stronger fade pressure than it did two weeks ago.
6.45% sits 2 bps below the 90-day high of 6.47% (range 5.98–6.47, avg 6.35) and 6 bps above the 30-day average of 6.39. Six days in a row at 6.45 ± 2 bps — the rich end of the range, holding stable. For borrowers quoted at the February floor (5.98%), today is 47 bps higher. For the 2023-vintage 7%+ refi cohort, the math is unchanged: about $210/mo back on a $400K loan at 7.25% → 6.45%. MBA's weekly survey shipped today — applications +1.7%, purchase apps +4% even at the 5-week rate peak. That's the second consecutive week of rate-fatigue resistance, and it says the wait-it-out trade is losing momentum on the purchase side.
Two segments today. First — FHA and VA borrowers in active pipeline. The 7-bp gov-loan widening today is small in absolute terms but enough to surprise borrowers who got verbal quotes 48 hours ago; call those files before Tuesday's rate sheet refresh and reset the expectation. Second — 2023-vintage refi candidates at 7.25%+. The Goldman/BofA cuts-to-2027 citation from yesterday is still fresh and gives you a citation-anchored reason to text them this week. Do this today: pull every FHA and VA file in active pipeline that received a quote in the last 5 business days and call the borrowers proactively with the 7-bp move — surprise calls about small moves build the trust you want when the next 25-bp move lands.