The print is split. August CPI, out at 8:30 this morning, rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% over the year at the all-items line — but gasoline rose 3.9% and BLS credits it with more than a third of the entire monthly increase. Core, with food and energy stripped out, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.4% over the year, and shelter was 0.3% for the month against 3.0% annually. Bankrate's conventional 30-year printed 6.85% this morning, unchanged from yesterday. That flat read sits on top of a rough session: Mortgage News Daily had mortgage-backed securities down close to a full point into the 4:00pm close yesterday and the 10-year at 4.95%, up 11.4 basis points and the highest since October 2023, driven by the PPI reaction plus an overnight crude surge that put Brent above $100 with WTI near triple digits. MND's own daily 30-year reads 7.07% — the 22-basis-point gap to Bankrate is a survey difference rather than a move, and it is why some of your borrowers saw a 7-handle in the news this week.
The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15 and 16, and this one carries a Summary of Economic Projections — statement 2:00pm Eastern Wednesday, press conference 2:30, dots with both. That is the week's whole trade, and this morning's split print is what the committee now has in front of it: a headline pushed up by an energy shock against a core series close to target. Between now and then the calendar is light — consumer sentiment opens September 13, housing starts and permits land September 16 through 18, weekly claims and the next PMMS both September 17. Nothing on that list outweighs Wednesday. The level to watch is 4.95% on the 10-year; it took two sessions to get there, and where the dots land is the nearest scheduled reason it moves in either direction.
Bankrate's 6.85% sits six basis points below its 90-day high of 6.91% and 38 above the 90-day low of 6.47%, against a 90-day average of 6.68%. Inside 30 days the band is 6.67% to 6.91% with a 6.76% average, so today is nine basis points rich to the month's own mean and effectively at the top of the range. There is no refi window in this: the 30-year is two basis points higher than a week ago and 13 higher than a month ago. On a $400,000 loan that is about $2,621 a month, roughly $35 above the same loan 30 days back and $75 above where it stood three months ago. Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS, published yesterday, reads 6.76% and is up five basis points on the week — same direction, lower level, different survey.
Two segments today. First, anything that can close inside ten days: you are pricing into a dot-plot meeting with the long end at a three-year high, and a borrower who wants to float through Wednesday should hear that as a decision rather than a default. Second, the ARM conversation, which has quietly improved while the fixed got worse — MND has the 5/1 at 6.62% against its own 7.07% thirty-year, a 45-basis-point discount worth roughly $120 a month on a $400,000 loan. That is a real answer for the borrower with a five-to-seven-year horizon who has been told to wait for the fixed to come down. Do this today: pull every purchase file with a lock expiring after September 16 and call the borrower before the weekend, so the float decision gets made on your timeline instead of Wednesday afternoon's.