Bond market is closed through Tuesday morning — Memorial Day caps a three-day gap with no fresh tape, and the rate sheet reflects that. Bankrate's 30-year sits at 6.65% Sunday, exactly Friday's print, and the 15-year is up two basis points to 6.01% — within rounding for the holiday read. The ARM line is the noisy entry: it shows 6.61% on the dashboard but that is largely product rotation in MND's table (the parser switched lead products this weekend, a known scrape-side artifact rather than a 29 bp real move). Today is a true slow day on the rate desk — nothing to react to that did not already land in the 5/22 or 5/23 pulses.
Tuesday's open is the real test. The 10-year closed Friday at 4.57%, off the 4.67% spike that defined Tuesday this past week, and lender sheets still have not fully passed the late-week bond improvement through to mortgage pricing. If the bond gains hold over the long weekend, the first session back should land somewhat better than today's print. The scheduled catalysts on deck are Q1 GDP revision Thursday and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE — Friday. Less forward guidance from the Warsh-era Fed means each hard data print carries more weight, and PCE is the one with the biggest swing power this cycle. The headline risk on the gap is the Iran negotiation thread that drove last week's round-trip; nothing about that has been put to rest.
Here is the chart that does not show up in the 30-year read: across this three-month window, the 15-year has held a 5.43% to 6.01% band — a 58 basis point range, against the 30-year's 67 basis point range from 5.98% to 6.65%. Tighter band, lower top. At today's 6.01% the 15-year is only about 12 basis points above its 90-day average, where the 30-year sits 27 basis points above its average and pinned to the top. For a $400K balance, the 15-year payment runs roughly $800 a month higher than the 30-year — but the lifetime interest difference is on the order of $300K. The math sits cleanly with a specific borrower: anyone with the cash flow to absorb $800 more a month, sitting on a 30-year refi quote from the past few weeks where the rate-improvement case looks weak. Move them down the term and the math flips.
The work today is on the 15-year cohort. Pull every active or recent refi quote where the borrower's current 30-year rate is 6.75% or above and run the side-by-side: their current monthly payment, today's 30-year refi quote, and today's 15-year refi quote with the term and payment laid out cleanly. The 30-year refi will look marginal at today's number; the 15-year version may be the one that closes — and you have until Tuesday's open to have the math ready when the post-holiday outreach lands. Do this today: pick the five strongest 15-year-eligible candidates in your pipeline and have side-by-side payment comparisons drafted before Tuesday.