Bankrate's daily 30Y jumped 9 bps to 6.58% today — a fresh 90-day high, breaking the 6.49 ceiling that had held for the last four sessions. FHA back up 4 bps to 6.22, VA up 5 bps to 6.24, jumbo up 2 bps to 6.72. The 10Y is at 4.59% — 12 bps above Monday's close — after the brief Iran-rumor recovery faded and bond vigilantes resumed the post-CPI selloff. Scotsman Guide framed today's tape as the bond market making its statement on the first day of the Warsh era. The structural backdrop is unchanged from yesterday's MBA flip to a 2027 RATE HIKE forecast — but the market is now physically moving in that direction, not just pricing the forecast on paper.
Wednesday brings existing-home sales; that print is expected solid given Redfin's pending-sales data showed +9.6% YoY last week, so the catalyst for a bond rally has to come from somewhere else this week. PPI lands Thursday — that's the next inflation read worth waiting for. Watch the 10Y at 4.65% as the next technical level (a level not seen in 13+ months); a break there opens 4.75 and pulls the 30Y toward 6.65–6.70. The path of least resistance remains higher unless PPI surprises soft, the Iran sanctions story resolves with concrete action rather than rumor, or a soft existing-sales print provides ballast.
6.58% is a NEW 90-day high (range 5.98–6.58, avg 6.34), 24 bps above the 90-day average and 16 bps above the 30-day average of 6.42. We broke the 6.49 ceiling that had held for four sessions AND broke through to a level last seen in early-mid April. For the 2023-vintage 7%+ refi cohort, the math compressed today: about $190/mo back on a $400K loan at 7.25% → 6.58% (vs roughly $200 yesterday and $210 last week). UWM's Refi '86 incentive (86 bps through June 30) is now mathematically MORE valuable as conventional rates rise — applied at 6.58%, the 86 bps of pricing improvement pulls the broker-channel effective rate well below 5.75% on the underwriting calculation, before standard margins. The deadline-anchored campaign matters more, not less, after today's break.
Two segments today. First — any locked file scheduled to close in the next 14 days: do NOT relock today on the new rate sheet. The 10Y is sitting on a knife edge ahead of PPI Thursday, which could move it 10–15 bps in either direction. Wait for Thursday's print. Second — 2023-vintage 7%+ refi cohort, broker-channel — Refi '86 is now the load-bearing component of every refi quote. Lead with the 86-bp incentive math, then the rate, then the dollar savings. Do this today: pull every locked file scheduled to close on or before June 2 and either push the close date to give yourself relock flexibility OR confirm the lock is one-sided (float-down eligible if rates drop, hold if rates rise). Don't be a hero with relocks today — the bond market is whipsawing on geopolitics and PPI is on deck.