**NOW.** Monday opened the data-heavy week with the ISM Manufacturing Index at 54 — beating consensus of 53 and the strongest factory expansion since May 2022. Bonds barely flinched: the 10-year ticked up 2 basis points to 4.47% from Friday's 4.45% close, when a hot print of this magnitude would have produced a 5-to-10 bp selloff three months ago. The dominant read is bond market positioning. Pre-positioning that fades hot data is consistent with both the post-Iran-peace-deal rally narrative and with markets believing the Warsh-era Fed reaction function does not move on a single manufacturing print. The ISM Prices Paid component came in elevated — input-cost pressure has not broken — but the more important Prices read is Wednesday's ISM Services Prices, the cleaner inflation signal for the Fed.
**NEXT.** Four prints remain this week, each with its own asymmetric risk. Tuesday's JOLTS for April is the labor-market state-of-play read — a print above 7.6M tells the Fed the job-opening side of the labor market has not loosened, which is hawkish. Wednesday brings the heaviest day: ADP private payrolls for May (consensus +110K), ISM Services for May (consensus 53.7), and the MBA mortgage applications weekly for the week ending 5/29. Friday is NFP for May (consensus +135K, unemployment 4.2%) — the print the market is most genuinely positioned around. The combination that tests the rally most directly is a hot NFP plus a hot ISM Services Prices Index on Wednesday. The Fed enters blackout Saturday 6/7 ahead of the June 17 FOMC — Warsh's first meeting as chair.
**RANGE.** Today's 30Y at 6.55% sits comfortably in the middle of its 30-day range (6.48 to 6.69, midpoint 6.58) and at the lower end of its 90-day window (90-day range 6.42 to 7.04, current sitting roughly 35 basis points off the high). The more useful frame is the 4-week trend: the 30Y was at 6.71% four weeks ago and is at 6.55% today — a 16 basis-point improvement over a single month, the cleanest sustained move in this direction since February's Iran-de-escalation rally. The 4-week trend matters because it is what borrowers see when they re-engage with a stale quote. The borrower who saw 6.71% in early May and called you back today has REAL math to discuss; the borrower who calls you back with a stale quote from late April is sitting on roughly a $40-per-month payment improvement on a $400K loan.
**DO.** The focus segment today is the late-April / early-May stale-quote cohort — borrowers who got a number from you 3 to 5 weeks ago and have not been actively re-engaged. The rate sheet has moved enough to reset the conversation, the data calendar gives you a clean reason to reach out ("the week's data lineup made me think of your file"), and the cumulative move is large enough that the math is meaningful but small enough that the borrower will not feel oversold. Do this today: pull the contact list of borrowers quoted between 4/27 and 5/10 who never moved to application, send a personal text or short email with their original number versus today's, and offer a Monday-afternoon or Tuesday-morning callback to walk the new payment math. Keep the message tight and let the dollar delta do the work.