NOW — two basis points on the day, and the interesting move is underneath it. Bankrate's conventional 30-year printed 7.02% against 7.00% Tuesday, 6.83% a week ago and 6.69% a month ago: 2 on the day, 19 on the week, 33 on the month. Yesterday's edition led with the ten-year clearing 5%; it did not hold the break. The ten-year is 4.98% this morning after 5.00% Tuesday, and Mortgage News Daily reported every attempt to push through 5% during Tuesday's session met a bid. The VIX is 16.8 against 17.2, so nothing about this is a risk event — it is positioning into an announcement. Mortgage News Daily has the same 30-year at 7.22%; Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS, surveyed on a different cadence and printing below the daily panels, read 6.76% on September 10, up 5 on the week and 9 on the month.
NEXT — the FOMC statement lands at 2:00 p.m. Eastern today with a full Summary of Economic Projections, press conference at 2:30. Markets have the hike priced; the dots are the variable, and the long end will trade the 2027 median rather than the move itself. The effective fed funds rate is 3.63%. After today the calendar thins out considerably: the next meeting is October 27–28 and carries no projections, jobless claims and Freddie's weekly survey both print tomorrow, housing starts and permits land this week, and core PCE is not due until the last week of the month. That leaves the dot plot as effectively the only scheduled catalyst between now and late September.
RANGE — 7.02% is the top of the range, not a point inside it. Across 84 observations in the last 90 days the conventional 30-year has run 6.47% to 7.02%, averaging 6.70%; the 30-day window is 6.67% to 7.02% against a 6.79% average. The 15-year is in the same place at 6.36%, its own high over the same 84 days. The 5/1 ARM is the one that has not fully followed: 6.69% on Mortgage News Daily's panel, a basis point off its 90-day high of 6.70%, which puts the ARM discount to the conventional 30-year at 33 basis points. Bankrate's FHA and VA series only resumed in mid-August, so there is no honest 90-day claim to make on them — FHA is 6.66% and VA 6.72%, both at the top of the 29 observations that exist since August 19.
DO — the segment today is not the refi book; at 7.02% there isn't one. It is the purchase borrower who is credit-constrained or payment-constrained and has been quoted conventional by default. FHA at 6.66% is 36 basis points under the conventional print, worth roughly $96 a month on a $400,000 loan on principal and interest alone before MIP is added back, and that comparison is worth running side by side rather than assuming. On in-flight locks, the extension decision is cheaper made before 2:00 than after: a hike is priced, so the risk sitting in front of you is a hawkish dot plot, not the hike. Do this today: list every file with a lock expiring inside 30 days, decide the extend-or-ride call on each one before the statement, and send the FHA-versus-conventional comparison to any purchase borrower you quoted this month at a score under 700.