NOW: Nothing moved. The 30-year is 6.78%, identical to Saturday's print, with the bond market closed and no release, filing or lender announcement to explain anything. This is the third day in a row that the honest summary of the tape is the same summary — up eight basis points on the week, up twenty-three on the month — and repeating it a third way would not make it more useful. So take the quiet at face value and use it to look at a part of the sheet that does not get read on a busy day.
NEXT: The calendar restarts Thursday and it restarts hard. Jobless claims and the Freddie Mac weekly survey both land August 6 — claims moved to 197,000 from 188,000 on the July 25 read, so a second soft print starts to look like a trend, and Freddie's last survey was 6.66%, twelve basis points under where retail pricing sits now. The jobs report and the unemployment rate follow August 7, and that is the release with actual repricing power. The CPI window opens August 10. There is no FOMC until September 15-16, and that meeting carries a Summary of Economic Projections, so for the next six weeks the data sets the direction with no Fed event to absorb it. The VIX at 17.09, down from 20.66, says the market has finished processing the July hold rather than positioning for something.
RANGE: 6.78% sits four basis points under the 90-day high of 6.82%, above the 30-day average of 6.63% and the 90-day average of 6.57%, with the 90-day low at 6.36% now well out of reach. That is the same read as Friday and Saturday. The more interesting spread today is inside the sheet: the 15-year is 6.11%, a full 67 basis points under the 30-year, which is wide by any recent standard. FHA at 6.34% and VA at 6.36% are running similarly rich against conventional, the 5/1 ARM is 6.37%, and jumbo is 6.91%. When the term and product spreads are this wide, the headline 30-year number describes fewer of your borrowers than usual.
DO: The segment to work today is the borrower with real income coverage and a shorter horizon — someone ten or fifteen years from a planned sale or retirement who has been quoted only on a 30-year because that is what everyone quotes. On a $400,000 loan the 15-year at 6.11% runs about $3,400 a month against roughly $2,600 on the 30-year: about $800 more, and roughly $325,000 less interest across the life of the loan. That is not a fit for most files, but for the two or three where it is, it is the best number you will show anyone this week, and nobody else is showing it to them. Do this today: pull every pre-approval and in-flight file with a debt-to-income ratio under 32% and run a 15-year alongside the 30-year, so you walk into Monday with a second number ready for the three borrowers it actually fits.