July nonfarm payrolls came in at negative 23,000 this morning against a consensus near 80,000, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% on a shrinking labor force rather than on hiring. The bond market read the payroll line and ignored the rest: the 2-year fell more than six basis points to 4.18% and the 10-year gave back about four to 4.62%. That front-end leadership is the tell — the hike premium that had been quietly building into the curve since last week's FOMC hold came out first. Yesterday's pulse made the point that bonds had rallied while rate sheets stayed put; today the rate sheet finally followed, with the national 30-year at 6.75% against 6.79% yesterday.
On deck: CPI lands in the August 10–15 window and is now the single biggest variable, because a soft labor print plus a soft inflation print is the only combination that takes the hike conversation fully off the table. Jobless claims and the weekly Freddie Mac survey both land August 13, with housing starts and permits August 16–18. The next FOMC meeting is September 15–16 and it carries a Summary of Economic Projections, so every print between now and then feeds a dot plot that reprices the front end again. The wildcard remains oil — the Strait of Hormuz headlines that drove yields higher earlier this week can undo this move without any US data at all.
On the range: 6.75% sits below the 6.686% thirty-day average and thirty basis points off the 6.82% ninety-day high, but it is still seven basis points above the 6.54% thirty-day low and thirty above the 6.45% ninety-day floor. That is a good day inside an expensive month — the 30-year is twenty basis points higher than it was thirty days ago and three higher than a week ago. Anyone framing this as a downtrend is going to look wrong on Monday if CPI runs hot. The 15-year at 6.12% and the 5/1 ARM at 6.34% both give more room than usual against the 30-year, and the FHA-to-conventional spread at 6.33% versus 6.75% is wide enough to be worth a second column on any borrower under a 700 score.
The segment that matters today is the 7%-and-above cohort — borrowers who closed in the 2023 through early-2024 window and have watched every improvement evaporate before they acted. At 7.25% on a $400,000 loan, today's number saves roughly $134 a month; at 7.5% it is closer to $202. That is real enough to justify a call, and today gives you a reason for the call that is not "rates are down a little." Do this today: run today's pricing against every closed file above 7.10% and send the top twenty a payment comparison before the close of business, while the number on your sheet still matches the one you quote.