The 30-year came in at 6.67% this morning, down four basis points from 6.71% yesterday and the lowest daily print since July 22. What makes it interesting is what the 10-year did over the same stretch: 4.72% at Monday's close against 4.63% last Thursday, so the benchmark is higher on the week while mortgage pricing is lower. That is spread compression, not a bond rally, and it is the more durable of the two moves — lender margins absorbing some of the supply pressure rather than yields backing off. Tuesday's session added to the case: the 10-year poked at 4.75% intraday, drew the dip buyers Mortgage News Daily has been describing all month, and closed green. On top of that, Treasury announced this morning that liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors go from a $2 billion cap per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 through the November 4 refunding. Buybacks do not set yields, but a doubled bid in exactly the sector mortgage pricing keys off is a tailwind for spread stability, not a headwind.
This week's calendar is light and back-loaded. Jobless claims land Thursday morning alongside Freddie Mac's weekly survey — claims printed 209,000 last week against 200,000 prior, so a second consecutive uptick would be the first labor crack worth pricing. Nothing else of size until New Home Sales next weekend, Case-Shiller on the 25th, and core PCE on the 28th, which is the one that matters. The FOMC's next meeting is September 15-16 and it carries a Summary of Economic Projections, so the dot plot is the next hard read on 2027 policy — a month out, not this week. On the technical side, 4.75% is now the third ceiling the 10-year has tested on the way up from 4.00%, after 4.30% and 4.42%. Holding under it through a quiet week is the bullish case; a clean break through on a hot PCE is the bearish one.
Today's 6.67% sits seven basis points below the 30-day average of 6.73% and near the floor of a 30-day band that runs 6.61% to 6.82%. Widen to 90 days and the picture is more sober: the range is 6.47% to 6.82% with an average of 6.64%, so today is roughly mid-band and still six basis points above the 6.61% print from July 20. Rates are not falling — they have compressed back toward the middle of the summer range after peaking at 6.82% on July 28. The useful framing for a borrower is that the July spike has fully unwound, not that a downtrend has started. Government-backed pricing is where the real relief is: FHA at 6.32% and VA at 6.34% are running about thirty-five basis points inside conventional, and the 5/1 ARM at 6.32% has held there three sessions.
The cohort to work today is anyone whose current rate starts with a 7. On a $400,000 loan, moving from 7.25% to today's 6.67% is roughly $155 a month, or about $1,860 a year, and that math has been sitting still long enough that borrowers have stopped checking. The second group is whoever you quoted in the last week of July at 6.82% — they are about $40 a month better off today and almost certainly have not been told. Do this today: pull every quote you issued between July 24 and August 4, and send that list a one-line payment-difference text using today's number.