NOW — There is no new catalyst today. Bankrate's 30-year sits at 6.69%, two bps lower than Thursday and the third straight daily step down from 6.74% on Wednesday. That is the whole move. Friday's retail sales print was the one scheduled event and bonds effectively discounted it — fuel-price swings and Prime Day timing distorted the series enough that the desk read was "ignore it," with traders booking profits into the weekend and continuing to steepen the curve. The 10-year gave back most of Thursday's post-PPI rally, drifting from a 4.63% close Wednesday back toward 4.69% in Friday's session. Net of the week: the 30-year is flat over seven days (-0.02) and still 12 bps higher than a month ago. Rates have stabilized in the high-6s; they have not started falling.
NEXT — The calendar next week is housing data, not rate data. Housing starts and permits land Aug 16–18, jobless claims and Freddie's weekly survey on Aug 20. None of that reprices the curve on its own; starts and permits move builder sentiment and your builder-referral conversations more than they move a lock desk. The event that actually matters is the Sept 15–16 FOMC, which carries a Summary of Economic Projections — the dot plot. That is a month out, and it means any lock extension you write past mid-September is carrying a projections release inside its window. Absent a surprise in claims, the base case into next weekend is more of this: a 30-year oscillating in a 10-bps band.
RANGE — Today's 6.69% is 8 bps off the 30-day low (6.61%), 13 bps under the 30-day high (6.82%), and just under the 30-day average of 6.728%. Against the 90-day window it looks less friendly: the 90-day average is 6.632% and the 90-day low is 6.47%, so we are trading slightly rich to the quarter. The more interesting number this week is not conventional at all. FHA is quoting 6.29% and VA 6.31% against a 6.69% conventional 30-year — a gov-loan advantage of roughly 40 bps, while jumbo sits 16 bps the other way at 6.85%. The 5/1 ARM at 6.29% is sitting on its 30-day floor. That spread structure, not the conventional level, is where the pricing opportunity is right now.
DO — Work the FHA and VA eligible purchase file, not the conventional refi list. A 40-bps rate advantage is large enough to change a qualifying decision on a fence-sitting borrower who was quoted conventional two weeks ago and walked away on payment — run the gov-loan alternative before you assume the deal is dead, and price the mortgage insurance into the comparison honestly so the borrower sees the true all-in number rather than just the rate. Same move for any veteran in your database who was quoted conventional because nobody asked about service history. Do this today: pull every purchase pre-approval from the last 30 days that was priced conventional, flag the ones with FHA or VA eligibility, and send those borrowers a side-by-side of both options with the full monthly payment on each.