Quiet tape, and worth saying so: Bankrate's conventional 30-year has printed 6.90% Friday, Saturday and again today, after 6.85% midweek and 6.84% a week ago. That is nothing on the day, 6 basis points on the week, 21 on the month. The move that mattered last week happened in the bond market rather than on the rate sheet — the 10-year Treasury closed Friday at 4.96%, 16 basis points above the 4.80% that opened a holiday-shortened week, with the VIX finishing at 17.6 against 15.8. Freddie Mac's PMMS read 6.76% as of September 10, up 5 on the week and 9 on the month: different survey, same direction. Nothing fresh has hit since Friday's close, and nothing will until Tuesday.
The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and this meeting carries a full Summary of Economic Projections. Statement and dot plot at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Wednesday, press conference at 2:30. The effective fed funds rate is 3.63%. Housing starts and building permits land Wednesday through Friday — last read was 1.239 million starts for July against 1.415 million prior, permits 1.433 million against 1.374 million — with jobless claims Thursday, running 206,000 against 207,000, and the PMMS print the same morning. The dot plot is the week's whole story; everything else is background unless it surprises.
Today's 6.90% sits one basis point under the 90-day high of 6.91% and at the top of a 6.47–6.91 band running back to mid-June, against an 84-day average of 6.69%. The 30-day band is tighter at 6.67–6.91, averaging 6.77. What is worth noticing is where the short end has not followed: Bankrate's 15-year is 6.24%, seven basis points under its own 90-day high of 6.31% inside a 5.82–6.31 band, and the 30-year to 15-year gap of 66 basis points sits toward the wide end of its 59–69 range while having moved only 4 basis points in thirty days. The 30-year has done the climbing this summer. The 15-year has lagged it.
That gap is today's conversation, and it reaches two segments the last two days did not. First, anyone who can carry the payment: on $400,000, a 15-year at 6.24% runs about $3,428 a month against $2,634 on the 30-year at 6.90% — $794 more each month, and roughly $331,000 less interest over the life of the loan. Second, the borrower sitting on a 15-year quote from earlier this summer, whose number has moved far less than the 30-year headlines would lead them to assume. Do this today: pull your last 60 days of quotes, isolate everyone who asked about a 15-year or mentioned paying the loan off faster, and send them the two payments side by side before Wednesday afternoon reframes every rate conversation you have this week.