NOW: The 30-year is 6.80%, two basis points above yesterday, eight above last week and twenty-three above a month ago. The move is small; the setup underneath it is not. Monday gave bonds a real bid — oil dropped on Iran de-escalation after planned strikes were cancelled and negotiation talk resurfaced, and the session opened materially stronger on it. The rally then went flat and held rather than extending, and by the close yields still matched the long-term highs set July 23rd. That is the tell. A genuine geopolitical risk-off got us back to the top of the range and bought nothing more. Then John Williams said the Fed still expects inflation to ease but is prepared to raise rates if it doesn't — a permanent voter putting a hike back in the toolkit. The 10-year is 4.75% on the latest read, seven basis points above two sessions prior, and VIX has drifted to 15.99. Fed funds is unchanged at 3.63%.
NEXT: The calendar does everything from here. Jobless claims and the Freddie Mac survey both land Thursday the 6th — claims printed 197,000 on the July 25 read against 188,000 prior, so a second consecutive soft number would be the first real counterweight to Williams. The jobs report follows Friday the 7th and is the week's whole event; unemployment sits at 4.2%. CPI opens its window August 10th. The next FOMC is September 15th and 16th and it carries a dot plot, which means Friday's number does not just move the tape — it moves what nineteen officials write down six weeks later. Treasury also released its marketable borrowing estimates Monday, so supply is a live variable into next week's auctions rather than background noise.
RANGE: 6.80% sits two basis points under the 90-day high of 6.82% and thirty-five above the 90-day low of 6.45%. Against the 30-day window (6.54% to 6.82%, averaging 6.66%) today is at the expensive end of everything the last month has offered. There is no version of this read that supports telling a borrower to wait for a better number this week — the range is intact, we are at the top of it, and the two catalysts that could break it in either direction both land in the next 72 hours. Anyone floating into Friday is making a directional bet, not a patient one.
DO: The segment worth your attention today is government-loan eligible buyers, because the spread is doing work the headline rate isn't. FHA is 6.33% and VA is 6.35% against conventional at 6.80% — that is 45 to 47 basis points, wide enough that a borrower you have been quoting conventionally on a modest down payment may be looking at the wrong sheet entirely. On a $400,000 loan, that spread is roughly $120 a month before you get to the mortgage-insurance comparison, which is where the analysis has to finish. Run it properly for anyone with military eligibility you have not screened, and for FHA-viable buyers where the credit tier and LTV make the MIP math survivable. Do this today: pull your active purchase files under 10% down and re-price the three of them with the widest conventional-to-government gap before you send another conventional lock recommendation.