Nothing moved because nothing was open. Bankrate's 30-year conventional prints 6.74% this morning, identical to Saturday, with the 15-year at 6.08% and the 5/1 ARM at 6.33%. Friday's numbers are still the operative ones: the ten-year finished at 4.708%, the UMBS 30-year 5.5 coupon at 99.19, and Mortgage News Daily's daily index at a three-week high of 6.81% after the two-year sold off more than twelve basis points on Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote. There is no new catalyst to add to that, and saying so is more useful than dressing up a weekend as a market. If you read Saturday's pulse you already have the whole picture.
The week ahead is back-loaded and thin at the front. Monday through Wednesday carry nothing scheduled with the weight to move pricing. Jobless claims and Freddie Mac's weekly survey land Thursday September 3, then the employment report on Friday September 4 — the first print capable of undoing Friday's repricing. CPI follows in the September 10 to 15 window, and the FOMC meets September 15 and 16 with a Summary of Economic Projections attached, which means a fresh dot plot from a Chair who has said he intends to lean less on forward guidance between meetings. Practically: the first three days of this week are a pricing plateau, and the decision-making all sits at the back half.
Since the 30-year has been the whole story for three straight pulses, look at the lane next to it. Bankrate's 15-year at 6.08% sits mid-band against a 30-day range of 6.03% to 6.15%, and against 90 days it has traveled 5.82% to 6.17% — a slightly wider band than the 30-year's, which is the normal shape when the front end is doing the repricing. The 66-basis-point gap between the two terms is the widest useful spread on your rate sheet right now, and it is not being priced into many conversations. Meanwhile the 5/1 ARM at 6.33% has moved four basis points in a month and sits only 41 inside the 30-year, which is too thin a discount to justify reset risk for anyone without a genuine five-year horizon. The ARM is not the answer this month; the 15-year sometimes is.
The borrower this points at is the one with payment headroom and a shortening horizon — the move-up buyer with real equity, the fifty-something refinancing a note they want gone before retirement, the self-employed borrower who just had a strong year. On a $400,000 loan the 30-year at 6.74% runs about $2,592 a month in principal and interest against roughly $3,392 on the 15-year at 6.08%. That is $800 more a month, and it is about $322,000 less in total interest over the life of the loan. Most borrowers will not take it, and it is not a pitch for the general list. But you almost certainly have four or five files where nobody has ever run the comparison out loud. Do this today: pull the five borrowers in your book with the strongest income-to-payment position, run both terms on each, and send the two-line comparison to whichever two have the shortest stated time horizon.