This morning's PPI print came in soft — core producer prices barely beat forecast, with the year-over-year figure landing right on consensus — giving bonds a second straight round of favorable inflation data after July's CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month, the second consecutive cool reading. MND's morning recap framed it as bonds "front-running" already-priced-in good news: Tuesday's rally had already absorbed most of the move, so today's session ended largely flat rather than extending the gains. Bankrate's 30Y sits at 6.74% today, up 2 bps day-over-day and a small bounce back off yesterday's pullback from the near-90-day-high we've been tracking. Freddie Mac's separate weekly PMMS survey — a different methodology and timing than Bankrate's daily read — shows 6.67%, down 2 bps week-over-week; different survey, same broad message: rates are stable, not trending hard in either direction.
With both of this week's inflation prints (CPI and PPI) now behind us and both landing soft, the calendar goes quiet for a few days. The next real catalysts are Housing Starts and Permits on Aug 16–18, then jobless claims plus the next weekly Freddie print on Aug 20. There's no FOMC meeting until September 15–16 — that one does carry a fresh Summary of Economic Projections — so absent a surprise in next week's housing data, expect the tape to stay contained inside this month's range.
Today's 6.74% sits comfortably below the 30-day and 90-day high of 6.82% (set July 28) and well above the 30-day low of 6.59% (July 15) — call it upper-middle of the range. Elevated relative to the spring lows in the low-6.5s, but not pressing new highs, and not the near-90-day-high level we were flagging Monday and Tuesday.
Two soft inflation prints without a real rally is a "nothing broke, nothing fixed" outcome — useful mainly for borrowers sitting right at a lock decision rather than a headline event. Already-locked files have no new reason to worry. Floating borrowers near the fence can be told the inflation backdrop stopped getting worse this week, without overselling it as the start of a drop. Do this today: reach out to anyone floating near a lock decision — flag that both inflation prints landed soft this week and today's level sits mid-range, a reasonable window to lock before next week's housing data has a chance to move things either way.