NOW — the rate sheet and the bond market split. Bankrate's conventional 30-year printed 7.06% this morning against 7.02% Wednesday, 6.85% a week ago and 6.71% a month ago: four on the day, twenty-one on the week, thirty-five on the month, and a fresh high across all 85 observations in the last 90 days. The ten-year went the other way — 5.01% at Wednesday's close, 4.95% this morning. Measured morning read against morning read, the gap between the quoted 30-year and the ten-year has widened about seven basis points since yesterday, to roughly 211. That is spread, not rate: the Fed delivered its quarter point to a 3.75% to 4.00% target range on a unanimous vote, the long end took it calmly with the VIX at 15.44 against 17.71, and the mortgage market is pricing the projection table rather than the move. Mortgage News Daily has the same 30-year at 7.24%. Initial jobless claims came in at 196,000 for the week ending September 12 against 206,000 — no help to the dovish side of the argument.
NEXT — the projection table is the thing to trade. The Committee's median federal funds rate is 4.1% for the end of 2026 and 4.1% again for the end of 2027, meaning one more quarter-point increase this year and then a hold; the first median below today's rate is 2028 at 3.9%. Two meetings remain to deliver that increase: October 27-28, which carries no projections, and December 8-9, which does. Between now and then the calendar is thin. Freddie Mac's weekly survey prints today, surveyed through Tuesday, so it will read well below your sheet — it stood at 6.76% on September 10, up five on the week and nine on the month. The August personal income and outlays report, which carries core PCE, does not land until September 30. Housing starts and permits printed this morning: starts at a 1,275,000 annual rate, down 2.6% on the month, with single-family starts up 7.6%, and permits at 1,394,000, down 2.7%. Next residential construction release is mid-October.
RANGE — 7.06% is the ceiling, not a point inside it. Across 85 observations in the last 90 days the conventional 30-year has run 6.47% to 7.06% against a 6.706% average; the 30-day window is 6.67% to 7.06% against 6.805%. The 15-year is in the same position at 6.39%, its own high over the same 85 observations, which have run 5.82% to 6.39% — so the 15-year has climbed 57 basis points off its low while the 30-year climbed 59, and the term spread between them has barely moved at 67 basis points. The 5/1 ARM on Mortgage News Daily's panel is 6.69%, one basis point off its 90-day high of 6.70%, which puts the ARM discount to the conventional 30-year at 37 basis points, four wider than yesterday. Bankrate's FHA, VA and jumbo series have only 30 observations since they resumed on August 19, so there is no honest 90-day claim to make on them: FHA is 6.69%, VA 6.71% and jumbo 7.13%, all within a few basis points of the top of the range that exists.
DO — the segment today is not the refi book and it is not the credit-constrained purchase borrower you worked yesterday. It is the purchase file that went quiet in the last sixty days waiting for the Fed to help. That borrower now has an answer, and it is a published one: the Committee's own median has rates higher at the end of this year than they are today and unchanged through 2027. The cost of the wait is concrete — on a $400,000 loan the last month has added about $94 a month in principal and interest, and the run from June's 6.47% low is about $157. On $300,000 those are roughly $70 and $118. That is a conversation you can have without predicting anything, because you are quoting the Fed rather than yourself. Do this today: pull every purchase pre-approval that has gone quiet in the last sixty days, send each borrower their actual payment at today's number, and offer one alternative structure — a different loan type, a different term, or a larger down payment — that closes part of the gap to the payment they had in mind.