NOW — The bond market gave you nothing on Friday and the quote reflects it. Bankrate's 30-year sits at 6.72%, unchanged from yesterday, down two basis points over the week and up seven from a month ago. Mortgage News Daily called the session data-free and thin, with low summer liquidity letting a handful of trades push more than they should. The 10-year finished at 4.69% after 4.65% Thursday. The one genuinely new piece of rate information came from MBA, which raised its forecast: the 30-year now averages roughly 6.7% through the fourth quarter and across all of 2027, up from the 6.5% published in July, with the 10-year ending both 2026 and 2027 at 4.7%, up from 4.5%. MBA cut its 2026 refinance forecast to $713 billion from $747 billion and its 2027 number to $655 billion from $684 billion, while lifting 2026 purchase volume to $1.43 trillion. That is the second major forecaster in three days to move its path higher — Fannie Mae did the same on Wednesday. Freddie Mac's weekly survey, separately, printed 6.65% for a second straight decline; that is a different measurement window on the same market, not a contradiction, and it is worth being able to explain when a borrower quotes it back at you.
NEXT — The week ahead has actual catalysts after two that didn't. New home sales open the week, Case-Shiller lands Tuesday, jobless claims and Freddie's survey come Thursday, and core PCE closes the week on Friday. PCE is the one with the range on it — it is the Fed's preferred gauge and the last major inflation read before the September meeting. The FOMC meets September 15–16 and that meeting carries a Summary of Economic Projections, so the dot plot is a September event; nothing between now and then changes the target range, which means the next three weeks are a data story, not a Fed story.
RANGE — Conventional pricing is doing very little: 6.72% sits five basis points off the 30-day low of 6.67%, just under the 30-day average of 6.74%, and a full quarter point above the 90-day low of 6.47%. The more interesting move is on the government side, where the discount narrowed overnight. FHA went from 6.32% to 6.38% and VA from 6.34% to 6.40% while conventional held flat, cutting the gov-to-conventional gap from roughly 40 and 38 basis points to 34 and 32. That is still a real advantage on an eligible file, but it is a thinner one than it was 24 hours ago, and if you are running a side-by-side for a borrower who qualifies both ways, re-price it rather than reusing this week's sheet. The 15-year at 6.10% and the 5/1 ARM at 6.36% both sit in the middle of their own 30-day bands — the ARM is only 36 basis points under the 30-year, which is not enough to carry an adjustable recommendation on rate alone.
DO — With both major forecasters now published at roughly 6.7% through 2027, the fence-sitter conversation changes shape. You are no longer asking a borrower to guess against an unknown; you are showing them that nobody credible is currently forecasting the number they are waiting for. That reframes waiting from patience into a position. The segment worth the call today is anyone you quoted in the spring who is still holding out for a five-handle, plus your VA and FHA pipeline, where the pricing you shared earlier this week is already stale. Do this today: pull every quote you issued between April and June that never converted, re-price it at today's number, and send the two-line comparison — the old payment, the current payment — with nothing else attached.