Friday gave the bond market its first real pause in two weeks. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.17%, a basis point below Thursday's 5.18%, and Mortgage News Daily's recap describes mortgage-backed securities outperforming, with the UMBS 30-year 6.0 coupon up about two-thirds of a point. MND's own daily 30-year index eased to 7.43% from 7.45%. That relief has not reached this morning's averages yet: Bankrate's conventional 30-year is 7.22%, up five basis points from Friday, a new top of its 90-day range (6.47%–7.22%) and 49 basis points above the 6.73% it showed a month ago. MND frames Friday's bounce with a question in its headline — "Is it a trap?" — noting the gains carry no guarantee about where bonds land next week.
The Fed side got firmer. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, in remarks at the bank's 10th Annual Fintech Conference on September 24, said she supported last week's 25-basis-point increase, put underlying inflation at "about 2.5 to 3 percent," and said "some modest further tightening may be warranted" if conditions evolve as she expects. That is one voting-cycle view, not a committee decision, but it is the language bond traders are reading against a 10-year that sits above 5%. Friday's data added a mixed picture: the University of Michigan's final September sentiment index fell to 48.1 from 51.7, while core capital-goods orders beat forecasts, per MND.
Housing data cut both ways. Census reported August new-home sales at a 684,000 annual pace, up 6.4% from July's revised 643,000 but 2.0% below a year earlier. MBA's weekly survey showed total application volume down 1.5% for the week ending September 18 after a 4.1% drop the week before, with purchase activity the steadier side. Those numbers fit together: builders are still moving inventory with incentives, while rate-sensitive refinance demand fades as the 30-year sits above 7%.
For pricing, the gap between bonds and rate sheets is the thing to watch Monday. Friday's rally came late and Bankrate's average still printed higher, so any follow-through could show up in lender pricing early in the week — or disappear if the selling resumes. The calendar is heavy: BEA's August PCE on Wednesday, September 30; Freddie Mac's weekly survey and jobless claims Thursday, October 1; and the September jobs report Friday, October 2. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28, and it does not carry a new dot plot. On a $400,000 loan, today's 7.22% works out to about $2,721 a month in principal and interest, versus about $2,589 at last month's 6.73%.
On the program side, HUD is raising the upfront loan guarantee fee on new Section 184 Indian Housing loans, including refinances, from 1.00% to 1.50% for firm commitments issued on or after October 1, 2026 (Federal Register document 2026-19782); the Section 184 Skilled Workers Demonstration Program goes from 0% to 1.00%, and the annual fee stays at 0%. Separately, House Financial Services Committee Democrats asked regulators to extend the comment period on the OCC/FDIC Community Reinvestment Act proposal, which currently closes October 13. FHFA also published its second-quarter foreclosure prevention and refinance report, putting cumulative Enterprise foreclosure-prevention actions at 7.43 million. And in real estate, HousingWire reports Compass has asked MLSs to block its listing data from non-IDX and VOW vendor feeds used for agent recruiting, with a 30-day deadline.
pull every Section 184 file in your pipeline that will not reach firm commitment before October 1, recalculate the upfront fee at 1.50%, and tell those borrowers now — before the number changes on their disclosure.