The biggest change this morning is on your rate sheet. Bankrate's conventional 30-year is 7.33%, up 11 basis points from yesterday morning's 7.22% and now the top of its 90-day range (6.47%–7.33%). The 10-year Treasury traded near 5.24% on Monday, its highest level this year, and is near 5.22% early Tuesday. The driver is expectations, not a new print: Redfin wrote Monday that markets are pricing in more Fed rate hikes after the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, and National Mortgage News reported economists expect Wednesday's data to show inflation-adjusted consumer spending surged in August, which they said would add pressure for another hike in October. Two reads on this: White House economist Kevin Hassett said the Fed has "not a lot of room to go up from here," while MPA reported Fed Governor Lisa Cook signaled inflation pressure will persist.
Yesterday's edition flagged early-stage delinquencies rising in FHFA's second-quarter report, and August data from ICE points the same way. ICE's First Look puts the national delinquency rate at 3.53%, up 14 basis points on the month, which ICE attributed largely to calendar effects, and 10 basis points higher than a year ago. Serious delinquencies rose 11,000 to 574,000. Prepayments fell to 0.64%, the lowest in 17 months.
Put those together and the week hinges on two reports. BEA's August PCE inflation report lands Wednesday, September 30; Freddie Mac's weekly survey and jobless claims follow Thursday, October 1; and the September jobs report arrives Friday, October 2, with unemployment last at 4.1%. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28 and carries no new dot plot, so those prints are the main inputs between now and then. Case-Shiller also publishes this morning.
On payments: on a $400,000 loan, 7.33% works out to about $2,750 a month in principal and interest, against $2,721 at yesterday morning's 7.22% and about $2,520 at the 6.47% low of the 90-day range. Freddie Mac's PMMS, the weekly survey behind the national 7% headlines, last printed 7.03%, up 0.08 on the week and 0.37 over four weeks on its own figures. For floating borrowers, the overnight 11-basis-point jump is already close to half of the quarter-point swing yesterday's editions sized for the whole week, so the lock conversation belongs today rather than after Wednesday.
Industry and regulatory notes: a federal judge in Oregon ruled the administration's halt to CFPB funding unlawful in a suit brought by a coalition of states, the third federal court to reach a similar conclusion, according to National Mortgage News; it does not change any rule or exam procedure lenders operate under today. Benchmark Mortgage is winding down Eleven Mortgage, its wholesale and correspondent channel, to focus on retail; if you broker loans to Eleven, confirm with your account executive how in-process files will be handled. UWM set terms for a rights offering of 200 million shares aimed at raising at least $400 million. And a FASB proposal would set an accounting standard for valuing recapture in mortgage servicing rights, which National Mortgage News reports reflects how that market has priced refinance retention for years. Two dates still on the board: HUD's Section 184 upfront guarantee fee rises to 1.50% and HUD's FY2027 Fair Market Rents take effect Thursday, October 1.
call every borrower you have floating before the end of the day, show them their payment at 7.33% and at a quarter point higher, and get a lock-or-wait decision on the record before Wednesday's PCE report.