The jobs report is the story this morning. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says payrolls rose just 29,000 in September, unemployment edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60,000 — July now shows a loss of 10,000 instead of a 21,000 gain, and August drops to 133,000 from 162,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% over the year. That is a soft labor picture with cool wage growth, and it lands on a rate market that has spent the past month climbing.
Yesterday's brief led with the GSEs' one-time UAD 3.6 exception and Bankrate's 30-year at 7.43%. Since then, bonds staged a sharp afternoon rally on Thursday: Mortgage News Daily reports the 10-year closed at 5.224%, down 1.4 bps after morning weakness, with UMBS 6.0 up about 6 ticks. Freddie Mac's weekly survey also printed 7.28%, up from 7.03% the week before, which Scotsman Guide reports as the steepest weekly rise in four years.
The connection to watch is labor versus inflation. Earlier this week a softer core PCE eased hike talk, and today's payrolls add a second soft data point; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Thursday that inflation is still too high despite the cooler reading. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28, with no dot plot. Between now and then, the calendar brings jobless claims and the next Freddie Mac survey on October 8 and CPI in the October 10–15 window.
On rates: Bankrate's 30-year reads 7.47% this morning, up from 7.43% Thursday and 7.17% a week ago, and the top of its 90-day range (6.54% to 7.47%). FHA sits at 7.20%, VA at 7.17% and jumbo at 7.54%. That reading was captured before the jobs report could reach rate sheets, so today's pricing may move off it — shortly after the release the 10-year was near 5.22%, a touch under Thursday's 5.24% Treasury close. If your lenders reprice during the day, that is the report working through.
On the policy side, FHA INFO 2026-23 opens an optional broad production period for UAD 3.6: effective immediately, FHA-approved mortgagees in Title II forward and HECM can deliver UAD 3.6 appraisals through the EAD portal, UAD 2.6 stays acceptable, and a case number must keep the format of its first submission. FHA has not set a mandatory date. Separately, Bloomberg (via National Mortgage News) reports that FHFA plans to direct Fannie and Freddie to accept two-bureau credit reports, possibly announced as soon as October 12 and effective one to three months later; FHFA has not confirmed it. UWM removed its 20-point VantageScore adjustment on new locks effective September 30. NMLS annual renewal runs November 1 through December 31. And FHA commissioner nominee Matt Jones told the Senate Banking Committee he would focus on housing supply, manufactured housing, limits on large investors and new credit underwriting models.
before ordering any FHA appraisal, confirm with your ops or AMC which UAD format the first submission will use — FHA locks that format to the case number for every later submission.