Bonds rallied this morning. The 10-year Treasury was trading near 5.03%, about 10 bps under Wednesday's 5.13% close, and roughly a third of a point below the 5.365% peak CNBC says it hit earlier this month. CNBC tied the move to rising Middle East tensions and a risk-off tone in stocks, not to the labor data. The Labor Department's claims report actually came in firm: initial claims fell 6,000 to 194,000 for the week ending October 17, and the four-week average slipped to 197,750. Continuing claims rose 25,000 to 1,728,000 for the week ending October 10. A firm claims number paired with lower yields means this morning's rally rests on headlines, not on a weaker economy.
Yesterday's edition led with NAR's 7.3% September drop in pending home sales and a draft executive order on mortgage costs that Scotsman Guide reviewed. That order is still unsigned, and nothing in today's flow changes that.
The demand picture lines up with the contract number. HousingWire reports MBA's weekly survey showed applications down 5.3% last week even as rates eased, with purchase applications down 7% from the prior week and 18% below a year ago. ATTOM data reported by National Mortgage News puts taxes, insurance and the payment at 31.8% of pay, past affordability norms in 98% of counties, which is a reminder that a lower rate alone does not fix a borrower's ratio when escrow keeps climbing.
On rates, Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.37% this morning, unchanged since Tuesday, so the survey has not caught up with this morning's bond move. Freddie Mac's PMMS stood at 7.40% for the week of October 15, 0.45 points higher than a month earlier, and the new PMMS lands today. The rest of the calendar: new home sales in the October 23–26 window, core PCE in the October 23–30 window, Case-Shiller on October 27, and the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, which carries no dot plot. A bond rally built on headlines can reverse just as fast, so treat a better price this morning as an opening to act on, not a trend to wait for.
Licensing season is close. CSBS says NMLS renewal opens November 1 and runs through December 31 in most states, and this year a licensee must complete the updated disclosure questions and the new employment-reporting requirements in NMLS before a renewal request can be submitted. CSBS puts completion at about 80% of individuals and companies, and state-licensed MLOs also need their annual continuing education done to renew. On the GSE side, Fannie Mae says its Income Calculator now supports 85% of borrowers evaluated through Desktop Underwriter, including wage-earner, paystub, W-2 and variable earnings, and it reminds sellers and servicers that its Information Security and Business Resiliency Supplement requirements take effect January 18, 2027. In lender news, National Mortgage Professional reports UWM is waiving credit-score pricing adjustments on FHA and VA loans for scores of 580 and up through December 31, HousingWire reports Northpointe will sell its distributed retail and consumer direct channels to CMG, with the deal expected to close by year-end, and Onity has sued New York's financial regulator over a mortgage servicing fee rule. National Mortgage News reports Treasury Secretary Bessent placed a GSE exit on the 2027–2028 agenda while indicating no near-term reform.
log into NMLS and confirm your updated disclosure questions, employment reporting and CE are complete, so your renewal can go in the day the window opens on November 1.