Rates gave back a little more this week. Freddie Mac's PMMS weekly average fell to 7.24% Thursday from 7.32% the week before, its second straight weekly drop of 0.08. The 10-year Treasury closed Thursday at 4.98%, down from 5.05% on Wednesday, and is trading around 4.92% this morning. Mortgage News Daily tied Thursday's bond gains to renewed jitters in tech stocks. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.28% this morning, unchanged from Thursday and down from 7.38% on Monday. Two reads on this: MPA calls it rates "finally falling – albeit slowly," while National Mortgage News says to watch spreads rather than the Fed, and asks whether yields turn back up with inflation data still running hot.
One more piece of Wednesday's Fed meeting is worth knowing. National Mortgage News reports that Chair Kevin Warsh said at his press conference that the FOMC will still meet eight times next year, but one of those meetings, planned for next fall, will be a strategy session with no rate vote and no policy statement. He said he expects the committee to hold six rate-setting meetings in 2028. Nothing changes for this year's calendar: the next decision is the December 8-9 meeting, which carries a dot plot.
The lender earnings landed against that backdrop. Rocket posted a $709 million Q3 profit but guided Q4 adjusted revenue to $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion and said refinances could fall nearly 50% from Q3, according to HousingWire; National Mortgage News reports Rocket expects 2027 originations to come in below the sub-$2 trillion forecasts already out there. Pennymac is widening its cost cuts to $160 million in annualized operating expenses after its originations and acquisitions fell 30%, per National Mortgage News. Both reports describe a shrinking refinance market and lenders cutting costs to match it.
For your pipeline, the week's move is small but real. On a $400,000 loan, Bankrate's 7.28% this morning against 7.38% on Monday is about $27 a month in principal and interest. Freddie's PMMS is 0.04 below where it stood four weeks ago, so over the month rates are roughly flat rather than falling. The next prints that can move them are weekly jobless claims and the next PMMS on November 5, and the October jobs report on November 6.
On the regulatory side, CSBS published California DFPI's plan to adopt the Mortgage Compliance Dataset, a MISMO standard loan file that replaces the Loan Examination File state examiners used before. CSBS says the State Examination System's September 2026 release carries a standard Information Request that requires licensees to supply closed-loan data in the MCD format when a state elects to use it; DFPI says it will use that request to gauge originator and LOS readiness for full implementation in 2027 and will schedule a pilot exam by the end of Q1 2027. On credit scores, CrossCountry says borrowers who scored better under VantageScore 4.0 saw an average 62 bps reduction in loan-level price adjustments in its first 60 days, about $2,500 in savings, and it is removing an 80% loan-to-value cap to widen eligibility across qualifying conventional loans. Former FHFA Director Sandra Thompson questioned the move to put VantageScore and FICO on the same pricing grid, calling a change to the credit score framework "no small task." Two dates land in the next few days: the NMLS annual renewal period opens Sunday, November 1, and the UAD 3.6 and new URAR mandate takes effect Monday, November 2. Separately, Zillow agreed to pay $212.5 million to settle a shareholder class action over its former iBuying business.
re-quote every borrower who has been floating since Monday against this morning's pricing, and send each one the exact monthly payment difference on their own loan amount.