Saturday is quiet, and the week closes with rates settled at their lowest of October. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.28% this morning, the same as Thursday and Friday, and the bottom of a month that ran from 7.28% to 7.57%. Mortgage News Daily's index finished Friday at 7.27%, down 0.02, under the headline "Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows." The 10-year Treasury closed Friday at 4.93%. MND says bonds spent the day holding most of Thursday's late rally, which came out of tech-stock earnings, so a weekend adds no new rate data and Monday opens from Friday's close.
The new policy voice came Friday from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. She was not one of Wednesday's two dissenters (Beth Hammack and Lisa Cook voted for a quarter-point hike), but she told an audience at Davidson College that "at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases" are needed, according to Scotsman Guide. She defended holding in October, saying a more gradual path helps households and businesses adapt, and she broke from Chair Warsh's approach of not signaling future moves, arguing that a clear destination helps the economy adjust. She also made a point that matters at your desk: as long as markets understand the FOMC's plans, the precise timing of each increase has little effect on longer-term mortgage rates. That is one official's view, not a committee decision. The next decision is December 8-9, and that meeting carries a dot plot.
Set Logan beside Mortgage News Daily's read of the week. MND wrote Thursday that the near-term fate of the rate rally depends on tech jitters, and September PCE inflation was 3.6%, according to Scotsman Guide, so the month's low rests on stock-market nerves, not on cooler inflation. A rate that moves on equity-market stress can move back the same way.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey, reported by MND on Friday, shows what that drop did for demand. Total applications rose 3.4% for the week ending October 23 as the average 30-year contract rate fell to 7.37% from 7.41%, the lowest in three weeks. The Purchase Index rose 4% and is still 18% below a year ago; refinances rose 3% and are 61% below. Adjustable-rate mortgages made up 11.3% of applications, the highest share in more than a year. On a $400,000 loan, Bankrate's 7.28% is about $2,737 a month in principal and interest, which is $27 under last Monday's 7.38% and $79 under the October high of 7.57% on October 12.
Two dates arrive before the new work week is half over. The NMLS annual renewal period opens Sunday, November 1, and runs through December 31, according to NMLS. The UAD 3.6 and new URAR mandate takes effect Monday, November 2. Later in the week, Treasury's quarterly refunding is Wednesday, November 4; weekly jobless claims and Freddie Mac's PMMS land Thursday, November 5; and the October jobs report arrives Friday, November 6.
Things you may have missed this week: the FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% from July to August, bringing annual appreciation to 2.4%, with July revised down to 0.2%, according to MND. New home sales ran at an annual pace of 676,000 in September, down 0.6% from August, per the Census Bureau report MND summarized. First American's analysis, reported by Scotsman Guide, found that nearly nine out of every 10 dollars of accessible home equity sit behind a mortgage rate below today's market rate. And Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac disclosed credit score market share for the first time in their latest quarterly filings, which Scotsman Guide reports shows FICO losing "meaningful" share to VantageScore in the third quarter. For a quick catch-up on earlier in the week: the Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on a 10-2 vote Wednesday, Rocket guided fourth-quarter refinances down nearly 50% from the third quarter per HousingWire, and Pennymac widened its cuts to $160 million in annualized operating expenses per National Mortgage News.
open the NMLS Renewal Checklists, Requirements, and Fees page and put your state's renewal requirements on your calendar before the window opens tomorrow.