Washington looks different this morning. National Mortgage News reports the Associated Press called the Senate for Democrats late Tuesday, with the House appearing on track to follow. For a mortgage shop the near-term read is about oversight, not new law: with the White House unchanged and no veto-proof majority, NMN expects little major legislation, but committee control decides hearing schedules, subpoenas and which nominees get confirmed once the new Congress sits in January. NMN names Rep. Maxine Waters as the likely House Financial Services chair and Sen. Elizabeth Warren as the likely Senate Banking chair. Nothing about your rate sheet or your guidelines changes today because of the vote.
Yesterday's brief had Bankrate's 30-year easing to 7.26% ahead of a busy week. It finished the day at 7.23%, and holds there this morning. Tuesday's bond session was a wash: Mortgage News Daily's Matthew Graham says an early lift from lower oil prices faded after a stronger job-openings (JOLTS) report.
The housing data and the lender earnings are telling the same story. Realtor.com's October report has contract signings down 17% from a year ago, pending sales down 10.5% and new listings down 7.5%, while active inventory grew 7.4% to more than 1.18 million homes. Realtor.com puts the cost plainly: the same monthly principal and interest now supports a loan nearly 6% smaller than it did in late August. On the lender side, Pennymac earned $29 million for the quarter but its production segment posted a $7 million pretax loss and the company is cutting jobs, per National Mortgage Professional; Finance of America grew funded volume 24% yet reported a $110 million Q3 loss as higher rates pressured margins, per HousingWire; and Angel Oak took a $24 million hit on its securitization portfolio, per NMN. The flip side is servicing: HousingWire reports MSRs are trading at their richest multiples in decades. Higher-for-longer rates make the loans already on the books worth more and the new ones harder to make money on.
On rates, Bankrate's 30-year fixed is 7.23%, down from 7.31% a week ago and inside a 90-day range of 6.67% to 7.57%. Freddie's PMMS last printed 7.24% on Oct. 29, with the next reading Thursday. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.93% this morning against 4.95% at Tuesday's close and 5.05% a week ago. Treasury's quarterly refunding, out this morning, offers $125 billion in 3-, 10- and 30-year securities and says coupon auction sizes stay unchanged for the next several quarters; the 10-year auctions Nov. 10 and the 30-year Nov. 12. The bigger swing factors are closer: jobless claims Thursday, the October jobs report Friday (September's payroll gain was 29,000 with unemployment at 4.2%), and CPI in the Nov. 10–15 window. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% in September and held in October; HousingWire reports CME FedWatch at 77% odds of another 25-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, which also brings a new dot plot. A new San Francisco Fed Economic Letter adds that the current El Niño episode poses a meaningful risk of higher inflation in 2027.
Elsewhere: the FHFA inspector general's semiannual report to Congress says three evaluation reports could not be published in the six months ending Sept. 30 because FHFA declined to provide enterprise records; an FHFA spokesman told NMN the agency delivered every document the IG requested under its statutory authority. Rocket Pro launched Quick Counter, a tool for brokers to counter a competing refinance offer during a live borrower call using real-time pricing. And Guaranteed Rate Affinity and OriginPoint, the Rate and Compass joint ventures, are combining under the OriginPoint brand.
pull every unlocked borrower who is under contract, send each one a fresh payment at today's 7.23% level, and set a lock decision with them before Friday's jobs report lands.