Tuesday brought a fresh set of home price numbers, and the useful part for marketing is the spread between regions. FHFA's House Price Index rose 2.4% nationally from August 2025 to August 2026, but by Census division the annual change ran from 0.5% in the Mountain division to 4.4% in East North Central, which covers Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Index rose 2.1% over the same year. That gives you an agency-sourced, local reason to reach past clients with a home value note, and it is a conversation that does not depend on what the Fed says at 2:00pm ET today.
The rate backdrop points to an equity and planning conversation rather than a refinance push. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.31%, under its 30-day average of 7.44% and 64 bps above its 90-day low of 6.67%, and Freddie Mac's latest PMMS sits 0.29 above its level a month earlier, so rates have moved up modestly over the past month. On a $400K loan, 7.31% is about $2,745 a month in principal and interest. ICE's September data adds context: loans originated in 2022 or later made up 43% of September's foreclosure starts, and slow price growth means those owners have built the least equity. A friendly check-in with that group is service, not a sales pitch.
The tactical move is a short value note segmented by region. For past clients in East North Central states, lead with the 4.4% division figure and the dollar version of it on a typical home in their market; for clients elsewhere, use their own division's number rather than the national one, since FHFA publishes all nine. Keep the ask small: an offer to run what their home and loan look like today. Send it after today's Fed statement so it does not land in the middle of rate headlines.
pull every past client in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin who closed more than two years ago, and schedule the home value note to go out tomorrow morning.