Redfin's housing update this morning gives you a buyer headline with a built-in caveat. For the four weeks ending October 25, the median U.S. sale price was $389,601, down 0.1% from a year earlier, which Redfin calls the first decline in more than three years apart from the prior week. The same report puts the median monthly mortgage payment at $2,786, up 10.7% from a year ago and at the second-highest level in Redfin's records, while pending sales were down 15.9% from a year earlier, at the lowest level Redfin has recorded, and new listings were down 4%. Prices have stopped climbing and the payment has not followed. A post that says only "prices are falling" leaves out the half that decides whether a home fits the budget.
The rate backdrop supports a steady message rather than an urgent one. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.31%, the low of its past 30 days but above its 90-day average of 7.05% and well off the 6.67% low from August 19. Freddie Mac's PMMS was 0.29 higher than a month earlier as of last week, so rates have moved up modestly over the past month. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% Wednesday, and its December 8-9 meeting is the next scheduled decision. That points the marketing focus at active purchase buyers who paused: the price side of their search has stopped working against them, and the conversation is about whether today's payment fits their budget.
The tactical move is a two-number post and a matching email to buyers who went quiet. Lead with the price fact, follow immediately with the payment fact, attribute both to Redfin, and close with an offer to run their own payment on the house they are actually looking at. If you work FHA buyers, Zillow Home Loans' new forgivable down payment second loan means those buyers may arrive with a competing offer, so put your own down payment assistance options in the same message rather than waiting for them to ask.
pull your active purchase files and send each one a short note with both Redfin numbers and their own payment at today's rate.