This week's marketing hook isn't the rate sheet — it's the April home-price data that landed this morning, and it's a cleaner conversation-starter than anything on the rate side. FHFA's House Price Index has values up 2.0% year-over-year and essentially flat month-over-month; Case-Shiller's national reading held steady through April. After a year of rate-fixated outreach, a credible third-party number about home values is a fresh way back into your database — and it sidesteps the "are rates going to drop" debate entirely. A specific, named figure ("home prices up 2%") lands very differently than another generic "now's a great time" message.
With the 30-year holding at 6.52% — flat on the month and dead-center of its 90-day range — and prices crawling at roughly 2% a year, the affordability standoff isn't breaking in either direction. That's actually a gift for segmentation: your move-up and cash-out borrowers have a stronger story right now than your rate-shoppers do. A borrower who bought in 2022 or 2023 has stacked two to three years of appreciation; even the modest recent gains compound on top of the larger early ones, which adds up to real, usable equity for a HELOC, a cash-out refinance, or a move-up down payment. Worth knowing the Redfin wrinkle, too: luxury values are rising about three times faster than the rest of the market, so your higher-tier clients carry an even stronger equity narrative than the median number suggests.
The tactical move is a "mid-year equity check-in." Pull purchase borrowers who closed 30+ months ago and send a short, data-anchored note: cite the actual +2% annual figure, offer a quick estimate of their current home value, and tee up the two doors it opens — tapping equity or trading up. Run your above-7% list in parallel for a rate-relief touch on the same day. The discipline that makes it work is the subject line: lead with the specific number ("Home prices up 2% — your mid-year equity update"), not a vague pitch. The named index is what earns the open.
Build a "mid-year equity check-in" email to purchase borrowers who closed 30+ months ago, anchor the subject line to the +2% April home-price figure, and offer a free current-value estimate with a one-tap reply.