Redfin's weekly read landed this morning: homes going under contract fell 3.7% week over week, the steepest weekly decline since 2022 and a five-month low, while new listings ticked up in the same week. Set that next to Scotsman Guide's Monday piece — July was the eighth straight month of rising pending sales, driven by price cuts, with one in five listings carrying a reduction. Those two aren't in conflict; they run on different clocks, monthly versus weekly. Read together they hand you the first genuinely buyer-favorable talking point of the summer: fewer competing bidders, more inventory, and sellers who have already shown they will discount. And there is a dated moment to hang it on — nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate land tomorrow at 8:30 ET, the only scheduled market event left this week. Write the post today and schedule it for Friday morning.
Be honest about the rate half of that story, because your audience will check it. The 30-year is at 6.79%, three basis points under its 90-day high, and up 23 basis points over the last month. Rates have not come down; they have ground higher all summer. Do not build this campaign on a drop that didn't happen — build it on negotiating position. The segment that matters is the purchase shopper who paused in May or June while competing against four offers. Their payment on a $400K loan is roughly $61 a month higher than it was a month ago, and their position at the table is meaningfully better. A seller concession toward a rate buydown, on a listing that has already been cut once, is worth considerably more than the 23 basis points they picked up by waiting. That is the trade to explain, and almost nobody in your market is explaining it.
One product note worth turning into content: Lower launched ONE by Lower, a conventional program pairing a 1% borrower contribution with a lender-funded grant marketed at 2% of the purchase price — but capped at $4,500. Above a $225,000 purchase price the effective grant falls below the advertised 2%, and the gap widens the higher you go. Competitors will run the headline number. Your move is the comparison you can actually publish: take your market's median purchase price, run the grant at that price, and post both figures side by side with the arithmetic visible. It is not an attack on a competitor, it is a worked example — and worked examples are what get screenshotted and forwarded. If you cite the Redfin figure in a post, name the week it covers; agents will look it up, and being the one who sourced it correctly is worth more than being the one who posted it first.
pull every purchase pre-approval you issued in May and June that never went under contract, and send each one the same two facts in two lines — what their payment looks like today, and that pending sales just hit a five-month low in a week when new listings rose. That is a re-engagement text with a reason to exist, and it goes out before tomorrow's number changes the framing.