Bankrate's conventional 30-year eased four basis points to 7.11% this morning, its first move lower after reaching 7.15% yesterday, the top of its 90-day series. The 10-year Treasury went the other way, trading at 4.98% after a 4.96% close, so the gap between the two narrowed to about 2.13 points from 2.20 — still above its 90-day average near 2.05, but the first day this week that lenders have given anything back. The backdrop has not changed: the Committee raised the target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, and Fed speakers are keeping more increases in view. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin called inflation "our troublemaker," and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said fighting it will likely be painful, pointing to supply shocks including oil prices tied to the Iran war and tariffs. MBA's weekly survey put its 30-year contract rate at 7.12% for the week ending September 18, the highest since May 2024, with refinance activity at its slowest pace since February 2025.
Tomorrow brings jobless claims and the weekly Freddie Mac PMMS, which last read 6.95% for the week ending September 17 after a 19-basis-point jump. New home sales are due by September 26, August personal income and outlays — the core PCE print — lands September 30, and the September jobs report follows October 2. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28 and carries no Summary of Economic Projections. Core PCE remains the release on this list with the most room to move the sheet; a soft read is the clearest route back toward the middle of the range, and a hot one puts this week's high back in play.
At 7.11% the 30-year sits four basis points under its 90-day high in a range running 6.47% to 7.15%, against a 6.75% average; the 30-day window runs 6.70% to 7.15%. A month ago the series read 6.72%, so rates are 39 basis points higher over 30 days — about $104 a month more on a $400,000 loan, principal and interest. The 15-year eased to 6.51% from its 90-day high of 6.54%. On the government side Bankrate has FHA at 6.84% and VA at 6.84%, both down slightly from yesterday and still near the top of their range since the series resumed on August 19. The widest gap on the sheet is the ARM: MND has its 5/1 ARM at 6.72% against its own 30-year fixed at 7.17%, a 45-basis-point difference, and MBA reports the ARM share of applications rose to 9.8%.
Today's segment is the purchase borrower with a defined horizon — a first home they expect to trade up from, a relocation, a buyer who plans to refinance if rates come back down. On MND's numbers the 5/1 ARM runs roughly $121 a month below the 30-year fixed on a $400,000 loan for the first five years, and about $91 on $300,000. That saving is only worth it if the borrower understands the adjustment after year five and has a realistic plan for it, so this is a qualification conversation, not a pitch. Do this today: identify every active purchase file where the borrower has said they expect to move or refinance within five to seven years, and run a 5/1 ARM quote alongside their fixed-rate quote with the first-adjustment cap spelled out.