Bankrate's conventional 30-year is 7.17% this morning, up six basis points from 7.11% yesterday and eleven from 7.06% a week ago. The driver was Wednesday's selloff: S&P Global's flash PMIs came in well above forecast — manufacturing 57 against 53.6 expected, services 58.7 against 56 — and the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.11%, up 15 basis points on the session. Rate sheets passed through less than half of that move so far: the 30-year-to-10-year spread narrowed to about 206 basis points from roughly 213 yesterday, which means lender pricing has room to catch up if yields hold here. MND's daily 30-year index is at 7.26%, and the 15-year on Bankrate rose three basis points to 6.54%. Weekly jobless claims at 197,000 for the week ending September 19 gave the bond market nothing soft to lean on.
Next up is the week that matters. Freddie Mac's PMMS publishes today, after last week's 6.95%; it is a weekly survey and trails the daily move, so a higher read is the likely direction rather than news in itself. August PCE lands September 30 and the September jobs report on October 2. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, and the next FOMC meeting is October 27–28, without a new dot plot. Governor Barr has said further adjustments are likely; a hot PCE print would reinforce that, and a soft one is the only near-term path to relief.
On range, there is no cheap end to point at. The 30-year at 7.17% is the top of both its 30-day window (6.70%–7.17%, average 6.90%) and its 90-day window (6.47%–7.17%, average 6.75%), and 42 basis points above a month ago. The 15-year is at its 90-day high of 6.54% (low 5.85%), and MND's 5/1 ARM is at 6.76%, also the top of its 90-day range, leaving the ARM about 50 basis points under MND's own 30-year fixed. On a $400,000 loan the past month's climb adds roughly $113 a month in principal and interest; the past week alone adds about $32.
The focus today is purchase borrowers under contract who have not locked, and anyone whose lock expires before the October 2 jobs report. Floating into PCE and payrolls from the top of the range is a bet that two reports reverse a trend the last three sessions confirmed. For borrowers who will hold the loan fewer than seven years, run the 5/1 ARM side by side; the half-point gap is real money on a larger balance. Do this today: call every unlocked purchase borrower closing before mid-October, show them today's payment next to the payment at last week's rate, and ask for a lock decision before September 30.