Bankrate's conventional 30-year is 7.22% this morning, up five basis points from Friday's 7.17% and ten from 7.12% a week ago. That move runs against Friday's bond market: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.17%, a basis point lower on the day, and Mortgage News Daily describes MBS outperforming Treasuries, with the UMBS 30-year 6.0 coupon up about two-thirds of a point. MND's daily index, which captures same-day reprices, eased to 7.43% from 7.45%. Read together, the average is still catching up to the two-week selloff rather than reacting to Friday's bounce. The 30-year-to-10-year gap sits near 205 basis points. On the Fed, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said on September 24 that she supported last week's quarter-point increase and that "some modest further tightening may be warranted" if conditions evolve as she expects.
Next week stacks the three prints most likely to decide whether Friday was a turn or a pause: BEA's August PCE on Wednesday, September 30; Freddie Mac's weekly survey and jobless claims on Thursday, October 1 (claims last printed 197,000); and the September jobs report on Friday, October 2, with unemployment last at 4.1%. Case-Shiller lands Tuesday, September 29. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28 and does not publish a new dot plot, so between now and then the data and Fed speakers carry the narrative. A cooler PCE would give Friday's rally something to build on; a hot one reopens the selling MND's recap warns about.
On range, the conventional 30-year is at the top of both windows: 6.73%–7.22% over 30 days (average 6.93%) and 6.47%–7.22% over 90 (average 6.77%). The more useful read today is in the other products. Bankrate's FHA and VA 30-year both sit at 6.93%, 29 basis points under the conventional rate and at the top of their ranges since those series resumed on August 19 (FHA 6.32%–6.93%). The 15-year is 6.60%, also a 90-day high. MND's 5/1 ARM is 6.85% against MND's own 30-year at 7.43%, a 58-basis-point gap on the same survey — for a borrower who expects to sell or refinance inside five years, that is real monthly money.
The focus today is purchase borrowers still shopping and in-flight files that have not locked. With the conventional rate at its 90-day high and Friday's relief not yet in the averages, a borrower who qualifies for FHA or VA, or who has a short hold horizon suited to an ARM, deserves a side-by-side before they decide the payment is out of reach. For locked-or-float calls, Monday's pricing is the tell: if lenders pass through Friday's MBS gains, floating into Wednesday's PCE is a coin flip that costs little to lose; if they don't, the risk sits on the upside. Do this today: send every unlocked purchase borrower a three-column payment comparison — conventional 30-year, FHA or VA if eligible, and a 5/1 ARM — at today's rates on their actual loan amount.