Bond market quiet today — markets have been closed since Friday, and there is no new catalyst to add to what this week already delivered. Bankrate's conventional 30-year is 7.22%, unchanged from Saturday and up ten basis points from 7.12% a week ago. The 10-year last closed Friday at 5.17%, and Mortgage News Daily's index is parked at 7.43%. Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS, the survey behind the 7% headlines, printed 7.03% on Thursday, up eight basis points on the week and 37 over four weeks. Whatever lenders do with Friday's MBS bounce shows up in Monday's sheets, not today's.
This week decides it. Case-Shiller publishes Tuesday, September 29; BEA's August PCE lands Wednesday, September 30; Freddie's survey and jobless claims follow Thursday, October 1 (claims last printed 197,000); and the September jobs report arrives Friday, October 2, with unemployment last at 4.1%. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28 and carries no new dot plot, so PCE and payrolls are the two numbers that can move pricing before then. A soft pair gives Friday's bounce room to run; a hot pair puts the 7.22% ceiling in play again.
On range, the conventional 30-year is at the top of both windows — 6.73%–7.22% over 30 days (average 6.95%) and 6.47%–7.22% over 90 (average 6.77%, 86 observations). The lens worth using today is term, not product. Bankrate's 15-year is 6.60%, 62 basis points under the 30-year and at its own 90-day high (range 5.85%–6.60%). On a $400,000 loan the 15-year runs about $3,507 a month in principal and interest against about $2,721 for the 30-year — roughly $786 more a month, but about $231,000 in total interest over the life of the loan versus about $579,000. Jumbo is the other end: Bankrate's jumbo 30-year is 7.31%, only nine basis points over conventional and at the top of its range since that series resumed on August 19 (6.74%–7.31%).
The focus today is purchase borrowers with room in their budget — move-up buyers carrying equity from a sale, and dual-income households whose debt-to-income leaves headroom — who have only ever been shown a 30-year. At a 7%+ conventional rate, the 15-year's lower rate and faster payoff is a real conversation for the buyer who can carry the payment. For anyone floating, hold the lock-or-float call for Wednesday afternoon, after PCE. Do this today: pick the five purchase clients with the strongest income-to-payment ratio in your pipeline and send each a two-line comparison — their payment and lifetime interest on a 30-year versus a 15-year at today's rates.