The week opens with bonds a little softer. The 10-year is trading near 5.21% in early Monday dealing, up from Friday's 5.17% close, which gives back part of Friday's bounce before a single print has landed. Bankrate's conventional 30-year is 7.22% this morning, unchanged from Friday and ten basis points above the 7.12% of a week ago. Mortgage News Daily's index holds at 7.43%, where it has sat since Friday. Freddie Mac's PMMS, the weekly survey behind the 7% headlines, last printed 7.03%, up 8 basis points on the week and 37 over four weeks. There is no new print behind this morning's move; the data starts Tuesday.
NEXT is where the week gets decided. Case-Shiller publishes Tuesday, September 29; BEA's August PCE lands Wednesday, September 30; Freddie's survey and jobless claims follow Thursday, October 1 (claims last printed 197,000); and the September jobs report arrives Friday, October 2, with unemployment last at 4.1%. The government is funded through December 11 under the stopgap signed September 2, so Friday's report is on schedule. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28 with no new dot plot, which makes PCE and payrolls the two inputs that can reprice the curve before then. A soft pair gives Friday's bounce room to resume; a hot pair tests whether 7.22% is a ceiling or a step.
On range, the conventional 30-year sits at the top of both windows — 6.74%–7.22% over the last 30 days (average 6.96%) and 6.47%–7.22% over 90 days (86 observations). Bankrate's FHA 30-year is 6.93% and its 15-year 6.60%, both at the top of their own ranges. On Mortgage News Daily's own index, the 5/1 ARM is 6.85% against a 7.43% 30-year, a 58-basis-point gap, with the ARM also at its 90-day high (6.21%–6.85%). Nothing on the sheet is cheap this morning, which turns the lock decision into a timing question.
So the lens today is how much a small move is worth to a floating borrower. On a $400,000 loan, each eighth of a point is about $34 a month in principal and interest: 7.22% runs about $2,721, 7.095% about $2,687, and 7.345% about $2,755. A quarter point either way is about $68 a month. That is the scale of the swing a floater is exposed to across two prints this week, and it lands better in dollars than in rate. For anyone whose approval is tight on debt-to-income, an eighth higher can matter more than an eighth lower helps. Do this today: for every borrower you have floating, send a two-line note with their payment at today's rate and at a quarter point higher and lower, and ask them to decide by Wednesday afternoon, after PCE, whether to lock or wait for Friday's jobs report.