The sheet moved overnight. Bankrate's conventional 30-year is 7.33% this morning, up 11 basis points from yesterday's 7.22% and 18 above the 7.15% of a week ago. The 10-year traded near 5.24% Monday, its highest level this year, before easing to about 5.22% early Tuesday. There was no print behind it: Mortgage News Daily described Monday as another weak start for bonds, reacting to Strait of Hormuz headlines with or without a move in oil, and National Mortgage News reported economists expect Wednesday's data to show a strong jump in inflation-adjusted consumer spending, which they said would add pressure for an October hike after the Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. Mortgage News Daily's own index moved from 7.43% to 7.50%.
NEXT is the same calendar with less room to spare. BEA's August PCE lands Wednesday, September 30; Freddie Mac's survey and jobless claims follow Thursday, October 1 (claims last printed 197,000); and the September jobs report arrives Friday, October 2, with unemployment last at 4.1%. The next FOMC meeting is October 27–28 with no new dot plot, so those two prints are what can reprice the curve before then. A hot PCE on top of Monday's move would test whether 7.33% is a new floor; a soft one gives bonds a reason to retrace some of it.
On range, the conventional 30-year is at the top of both windows: 6.74%–7.33% over 30 days (average 6.98%) and 6.47%–7.33% over 90 days (86 observations). Bankrate's 15-year is 6.70%, also the top of its 90-day range (5.85%–6.70%). The government and jumbo products moved with it: FHA 30-year 7.02%, VA 7.04% and jumbo 7.45%, each the high of its series since Bankrate resumed publishing them in mid-August. On Mortgage News Daily's index the 5/1 ARM holds 6.85% against a 7.50% 30-year, a 65-basis-point gap.
The lens for today is the conventional-versus-FHA gap. At 7.33% conventional and 7.02% FHA, a $400,000 loan runs about $2,750 a month in principal and interest conventional against about $2,667 at the FHA rate, before mortgage insurance on either side. For a buyer whose approval is tight on debt-to-income, that side-by-side is worth running with the full cost of insurance included, because the rate gap alone does not settle it. Do this today: for every floating borrower, send their payment at 7.33% and at a quarter point either side, and for any FHA-eligible buyer add a side-by-side of the conventional and FHA payment with insurance included, then ask for a lock-or-wait decision before PCE lands Wednesday.