The sheet moved up again, and this time there was no print to blame. Bankrate's conventional 30-year is 7.43% this morning, up 9 basis points from 7.34% yesterday and 26 above the 7.17% of a week ago. The 10-year closed Wednesday at 5.29%, up from 5.26% on Tuesday, and Mortgage News Daily described the session as another bad day for bonds without new justification: the brief rally after the softer core PCE reversed, and yields briefly broke above 5.30%. This morning's weekly jobless claims came in at 197,000 against 198,000 the week before, which gives bonds no reason to turn. Bankrate's 15-year rose 6 basis points to 6.76% and its FHA 30-year rose 6 to 7.17%, while VA eased a basis point to 7.13%.
Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS lands today; it read 7.03% last week, and on that survey the 30-day change is +0.37. The bigger test is Friday, when September payrolls and the unemployment rate arrive together. Next week brings jobless claims on October 8, and the September CPI is due in the October 10–15 window. The October 27–28 FOMC meeting is the next decision and does not carry a new dot plot, so the data between now and then is what moves the sheet.
Today's 7.43% is the top of Bankrate's 30-day range (6.75% to 7.43%, averaging 7.03%) and the top of its 90-day range (6.54% to 7.43%, averaging 6.81%). The 15-year at 6.76% is also the high of its 90-day window. Bankrate's FHA 30-year at 7.17% is the highest since that series resumed in mid-August. In payment terms, $400,000 at today's 7.43% is about $2,778 a month in principal and interest, roughly $181 more than the same loan at the 6.76% Bankrate showed on September 1.
The last two pulses focused on borrowers floating a lock, so today the lens is product choice for buyers still shopping. On Mortgage News Daily's daily index, the 5/1 ARM sits at 6.85% against a 30-year fixed of 7.60%, a 75-basis-point gap that works out to roughly $203 a month in principal and interest on $400,000 during the initial fixed period. That gap is real money for a buyer who expects to move or refinance inside the fixed period, and it comes with adjustment risk that has to be shown just as plainly. Do this today: build a side-by-side for every active pre-approval — 30-year fixed, 5/1 ARM at today's start rate, and the ARM's payment at its first adjustment cap — and send it with a note inviting a ten-minute call.