Bankrate's conventional 30-year reads 7.47% this morning, up 4 basis points from 7.43% Thursday and 30 above the 7.17% of a week ago. That reading came in before the 8:30 ET jobs report could reach rate sheets, and the report was soft: the BLS says payrolls rose 29,000 in September, unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, July was revised to a loss of 10,000 and August down to 133,000, with average hourly earnings up 0.1% on the month. Bonds came into the number off a sharp Thursday afternoon rally — Mortgage News Daily has the 10-year closing at 5.224%, down 1.4 bps, with UMBS 6.0 up about 6 ticks — and shortly after the release the 10-year was near 5.22%, a touch under Thursday's 5.24% Treasury close. Freddie Mac's PMMS printed 7.28% Thursday, up 25 bps on the week and 57 over 30 days on that survey.
Next week is lighter until the back half. Weekly jobless claims and the next PMMS land October 8, and CPI falls in the October 10–15 window — the next hard test for whether softer labor data outweighs inflation that Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari still calls too high. The FOMC meets October 27–28 with no dot plot.
On range, today's 7.47% is the high of Bankrate's 30-day window (6.80% to 7.47%, average 7.06%) and of its 90-day window (6.54% to 7.47%, average 6.82%). The 15-year is likewise at its 90-day high at 6.77% (low 5.85%). Government loans are pricing below conventional: Bankrate's FHA 30-year is 7.20% and VA is 7.17%, 27 and 30 bps under the conventional 30-year, while Mortgage News Daily's 5/1 ARM index sits at 6.87%.
The focus today is buyers who are under contract and not yet locked. A volatile data day cuts both ways for them, and a rate sheet that improves after a soft print is the kind of window that can close on the next release. On a $400K loan, today's 7.47% is about $2,789 a month in principal and interest, $82 more than at last week's 7.17% and $250 more than at the 90-day low of 6.54%. Do this today: pull every unlocked file closing in the next 45 days, check this afternoon's sheet against this morning's, and call each borrower with a lock-or-float recommendation in dollars, not rate.