Bankrate's conventional 30-year reads 7.49% this morning, up 2 basis points from 7.47% Friday and 27 above the 7.22% of a week ago. Friday's session explains the drift. HousingWire reports the 10-year fell as low as 5.17% after September payrolls came in at 29,000, but it closed at 5.28% on Treasury's curve, up 4 bps from Thursday's 5.24%. Mortgage News Daily's recap says the weak headline count was the worst of the report: unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, but the unrounded rate barely budged, and bonds sold off into the close. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson's comment Thursday that the Fed may take more time before another hike did not hold yields down either. With no bond session today, 7.49% is where the sheet stands going into Monday.
The calendar is thin until Thursday. Weekly jobless claims and the next Freddie Mac PMMS land October 8; PMMS read 7.28% last week, up 25 bps on the week and 57 over 30 days on that survey. CPI falls in the October 10–15 window and is the next print with the weight to move the sheet in either direction, and the FOMC meets October 27–28 without a new dot plot. A soft print is the first real chance for the sheet to come off this level; a firm one adds to the pressure.
On range, 7.49% is the high of Bankrate's 30-day window (6.83% to 7.49%, average 7.08%) and of its 90-day window (6.54% to 7.49%, average 6.83%). The 15-year is likewise at its 90-day high at 6.78% (low 5.85%). Government loans still price under conventional on Bankrate: FHA at 7.20%, unchanged from Friday, and VA at 7.19%, up 2 bps, with both series covering only since they resumed in mid-August. Jumbo sits at 7.54%. The September climb is the number that matters for buyers who got pre-approved early in the month: Bankrate's 30-year was 6.83% on September 4, and at today's 7.49% the principal and interest on a $400,000 loan runs about $178 a month higher, $134 on $300,000 and $223 on $500,000.
The focus today is pre-approved buyers who have not written an offer yet, because a buyer touring this weekend may write an offer on a payment estimate from a month ago. A letter issued in early September may still clear the approval, but the payment the buyer has in mind is out of date, and their debt-to-income ratio needs a fresh look before they commit to a price. Do this today: Pull every pre-approval issued between September 1 and September 15, rerun the payment and DTI at 7.49%, and text each buyer their updated monthly number with an offer to adjust the price range before they tour this weekend.