Bond market quiet today, with no new catalyst to add to what we covered this week. Bankrate's conventional 30-year reads 7.49%, unchanged from Saturday and 27 basis points above the 7.22% of a week ago. Friday's session is still the last word: the 10-year touched 5.17% after September payrolls came in at 29,000, then closed at 5.28% on Treasury's curve. Monday's session is the first chance for the sheet to move off this level.
The calendar stays thin until Thursday. Weekly jobless claims and the next Freddie Mac PMMS land October 8; PMMS read 7.28% last week, up 25 bps on the week and 57 over 30 days on that survey. CPI falls in the October 10 to 15 window and is the print with the weight to move the sheet in either direction, and the FOMC meets October 27 to 28 without a new dot plot. A soft CPI is the first real opening for the sheet to come off its high; a firm one adds to the pressure.
For a different lens on the range today, look at term rather than program. Bankrate's 30-year at 7.49% is the high of both its 30-day window (6.83% to 7.49%, average 7.09%) and its 90-day window (6.54% to 7.49%, average 6.84%). The 15-year has made the same trip, sitting at 6.78%, the top of its 90-day range from a low of 5.85%, which leaves it 71 bps under the 30-year. On a $400,000 loan the 15-year payment is about $3,546 a month in principal and interest against about $2,794 on the 30-year, roughly $752 more each month, but if both loans run to term the 15-year carries about $238,000 of total interest against about $606,000 on the 30-year. Jumbo sits at 7.54%, just 5 bps over conventional on Bankrate.
The focus today is purchase buyers with strong cash flow who are comparing payment against total cost. A rate sheet at its high is a good moment to show both terms side by side, because the borrower who can carry the larger payment sees a lower rate and a much smaller interest bill, while the borrower who needs the lower payment sees exactly what the flexibility costs. Keep it a comparison, not a recommendation, and run it at the borrower's real loan amount. Do this today: build a two-column 15-year versus 30-year payment and total-interest comparison at today's pricing for every pre-approved buyer above $350,000 and queue it to send Monday morning.