Bankrate's conventional 30-year reads 7.55% this morning, the same as Monday's reading and 6 bps above the 7.49% it held over the weekend. A week ago it read 7.33%, so the sheet is 22 bps worse in seven days. The driver is the long end: Treasury's daily curve closed the 10-year at 5.31% Monday, up from 5.28% Friday and 5.24% on October 1, and it is trading near 5.29% early Tuesday. Mortgage News Daily's MBS recap described Monday as a curve trade, with maturities of three years or less rallying while longer yields rose, and no new data or headline to pin it on. That is the frustrating part for pricing: there is no single print to wait out.
The calendar stays light until Thursday, October 8, when weekly jobless claims and the next Freddie Mac PMMS land. PMMS read 7.28% last week, up 25 bps on the week and 57 bps over 30 days on that survey. CPI follows in the October 10 to 15 window. The Fed meets October 27 to 28, a meeting without a dot plot, with the effective fed funds rate at 3.88%. Redfin's weekly take notes that last week's data reduced the odds of an October hike, yet mortgage rates still rose, so a calmer Fed outlook alone has not been enough to pull the long end back.
On range, today's 7.55% is the top of the 30-year's 90-day band of 6.54% to 7.55% and the top of its 30-day band of 6.83% to 7.55%, against a 90-day average of 6.86% and a 30-day average of 7.14%. The 15-year is in the same spot at 6.83%, the top of its 90-day range of 5.85% to 6.83%, which keeps the 15-to-30 gap at 72 bps on Bankrate. On a $400,000 loan, the 30-year payment is about $2,811 today against about $2,539 at the 90-day low, a gap of roughly $272 a month. MND's 5/1 ARM reads 6.87%, also at the top of its own 90-day range of 6.23% to 6.87%, so the ARM is not escaping the move either.
The focus today is your open pipeline: borrowers with an application in and no lock. The past week alone added about $61 a month on a $400,000 loan, from about $2,750 at 7.33% to about $2,811 at 7.55%, and Thursday and next week's CPI are both chances for the sheet to move again in either direction. Do this today: Pull every unlocked file closing in the next 45 days, run today's payment next to the payment at last week's quote, and call each borrower with both numbers so they can make the lock decision with the real cost in front of them.