Bonds gave back a little of Thursday's rally on Friday and mortgage rates followed by a hair. Treasury's 10-year closed at 5.00%, up 4 bps from Thursday's 4.96% but 13 bps under Wednesday's 5.13%, and Mortgage News Daily summed it up as slightly weaker on the day but much stronger on the week, with Friday's move about a quarter the size of Thursday's. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.36%, up from 7.34%. The siblings moved the same way in small steps: FHA 7.19% from 7.17%, VA 7.16% from 7.14%, the 15-year 6.77% from 6.76%, while jumbo eased to 7.43% from 7.48%. Freddie Mac's PMMS printed 7.32% Thursday, 0.08 lower on the week and 0.29 higher than a month ago.
Next week is the one that matters. The Fed meets October 27–28, with the statement at 2:00pm ET on the 28th, a 2:30pm press conference and no dot plot this time; fed funds sits at 3.88%. Case-Shiller lands October 27, new home sales are due in a window that closes October 26, core PCE in a window that runs through October 30, and the next PMMS and jobless claims both print October 29. A 10-year sitting right at 5% makes the core PCE number the one that decides whether this week's rally holds.
On range, 7.36% is under Bankrate's 30-day average of 7.43%, inside a 30-day band of 7.17% to 7.57%, and 69 bps above the 90-day low of 6.67%, with a 90-day average of 7.02%. That is the cheap half of the past month and still the rich side of the past quarter. FHA's 7.19% sits 5 bps under its high since the series resumed in mid-August of 7.24%, and VA's 7.16% is 12 bps under its 7.28% high over the same stretch.
The focus is buyers who will be in contract during Fed week. On a $400K loan, principal and interest at 7.36% runs about $2,759 a month, $57 less than at the 30-day high of 7.57% and $186 more than at the 90-day low of 6.67%. That spread is the range the Fed statement and core PCE can push a buyer through, so the lock-or-float call deserves a real conversation with the borrower this weekend rather than a default. Do this today: text every buyer with an accepted offer and no lock their payment at 7.36% next to the payment at 7.57%, and ask whether they want to lock before Tuesday.