Bond market quiet this weekend, with no new catalyst to add to what we covered Friday and Saturday. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.36%, unchanged from Saturday and up from 7.34% on Friday's read, after Treasury's 10-year closed Friday at 5.00%, up 4 bps on the day and 13 bps lower than Wednesday. Freddie Mac's PMMS still reads 7.32% from Thursday, 0.29 higher than a month ago.
The calendar does the talking this week. The Fed meets October 27–28 with the statement at 2:00pm ET on Wednesday, a 2:30pm press conference and no dot plot; fed funds is 3.88%. Case-Shiller prints Tuesday, the new home sales window closes Monday, core PCE is due in a window running through Friday the 30th, and PMMS and jobless claims both land Thursday. Nothing changes the picture until those arrive, and the 10-year sitting at 5% leaves both directions open.
The lens worth using on a quiet day is the 15-year. Bankrate's 15-year fixed reads 6.77%, 59 bps under the 30-year from the same survey. It sits at its 30-day average of 6.77%, inside a 30-day band of 6.60% to 6.84%, and 74 bps above its 90-day low of 6.03%. The 30-year at 7.36% is under its 30-day average of 7.43%, inside a 7.22% to 7.57% band, and 69 bps above its 90-day low of 6.67%. On a $400K loan, principal and interest runs about $2,759 a month at 7.36% over 30 years and about $3,544 at 6.77% over 15 years, a $785 monthly difference. Over the full term, that is roughly $593,000 in interest on the 30-year against roughly $238,000 on the 15-year.
The focus is purchase buyers and refinance clients with income to spare: a household that can carry about $785 more a month on $400K gets a rate 59 bps lower and a payoff in half the time. Do this today: pick three buyers or refinance clients with strong income and send each their payment on a 15-year at 6.77% next to the 30-year at 7.36%.