Bond market quiet to open the week, with no new catalyst since Friday. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.36%, unchanged since Friday and down from 7.47% a week ago. Treasury's 10-year is trading at 5.00% this morning, level with Friday's close. Freddie Mac's PMMS still reads 7.32% from last Thursday, 0.08 lower on the week and 0.29 higher than a month ago.
The calendar is where the week gets decided. The Fed meets October 27 and 28, with the statement at 2:00pm ET Wednesday, a 2:30pm press conference and no dot plot this meeting; fed funds sits at 3.88%. Case-Shiller lands Tuesday, PMMS and jobless claims print Thursday the 29th, and core PCE is due in a window running through Friday the 30th. With the 10-year sitting right at 5%, the statement and core PCE are the two scheduled events that can move pricing in either direction.
On range, 7.36% is under Bankrate's 30-day average of 7.43%, inside a 30-day band of 7.22% to 7.57%, and 69 bps above the 90-day low of 6.67%, against a 90-day average of 7.04%. The government side is the lens worth using today. Bankrate's FHA 30-year reads 7.19% and its VA 30-year 7.16%, 17 and 20 bps under the conventional 30-year from the same survey. Both series have run since mid-August, and over that stretch FHA has ranged from 6.32% to 7.24% and VA from 6.34% to 7.28%, so both sit near the top of their own range. On a $400K loan, principal and interest runs about $2,759 a month at 7.36%, about $2,712 at the FHA rate and about $2,704 at the VA rate, before FHA mortgage insurance or the VA funding fee.
The segment to work is FHA and VA buyers, especially veterans who saw last week's executive order headlines. National Mortgage News reports the order's VA rate cut applies only to loans VA makes directly, not the VA-guaranteed loans lenders originate, so it does not change the rate on a typical VA purchase. Do this today: call every VA and FHA borrower with an accepted offer and no lock, give them today's payment at their program's rate, and set a follow-up for Wednesday afternoon after the Fed statement.