The bond market is waiting on the Fed. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.38% this morning, level with Monday and down from 7.47% on October 19. The 10-year Treasury is trading at 4.98% after closing Monday at 5.00%, and Mortgage News Daily called Monday exceptionally uneventful, with bonds holding steady even as tech stocks recovered. Freddie Mac's PMMS read 7.32% last Thursday, 0.08 lower on the week and 0.29 higher than a month ago, so rates have moved up modestly over the past month even after last week's dip.
The Fed's meeting runs today and tomorrow, with the statement Wednesday at 2:00pm ET, a 2:30pm press conference and no dot plot this meeting. Fed funds sits at 3.88%. Case-Shiller lands today, PMMS and jobless claims print Thursday the 29th, and core PCE is due in a window running through Friday the 30th. The next jobs report is November 6. With the 10-year hovering just under 5%, the statement's wording on future meetings and Friday's core PCE are the two items on the calendar that can move pricing in either direction.
On range, 7.38% sits under Bankrate's 30-day average of 7.44% inside a 30-day band of 7.22% to 7.57%, and 71 bps above the 90-day low of 6.67%, against a 90-day average of 7.04%. The lens we have not run this week is the adjustable. Mortgage News Daily's 7/6 SOFR ARM reads 6.82% against its own 30-year fixed at 7.33%, a 51 bp gap from the same survey; the ARM is up from 6.75% on Sunday. On a $400K loan, principal and interest runs about $2,613 a month at 6.82% versus about $2,750 at 7.33%, roughly $137 a month lower for the first seven years, after which the rate adjusts every six months.
The segment to work is buyers under contract who expect to sell or refinance within about seven years and have not locked. For them the 7/6 is a real comparison, provided they understand the rate can change after year seven and you show them the adjustment caps on the actual product. Do this today: for every unlocked purchase file closing in the next 45 days, run the 30-year fixed and the 7/6 side by side and get the borrower's lock-or-float decision on the record before Wednesday's 2:00pm ET statement.